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South Africa can be very proud of its property industry

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I was having a look at the ‘net and came across this headline: SA property sector worth R4.9-trillion

I know, I felt like that as well: So much property and so little in my name. It happens to all of us!

But, that got me thinking about our country and the industry…………

The South African property industry is significant in many respects:

  • Property rights are secured in our Constitution and we trust that it will stay that way.
  • The Deeds Office nationally is functional and does relatively well in securing our property rights as well as the rights of our financiers.
  • Our property law is well established and we produce outstanding conveyancers and property experts in many fields of the property market.
  • It is very well managed with a number of globally competitive property funds that own significant amounts of property on behalf of shareholders.
  • Our estate agents are highly skilled and requiring of continuous training and development in order to stay at the top of their game. Estate Agencies, are widespread and whilst the large franchises dominate, there is still room for the smaller business owners to ply their trade off the back of excellent exposure and/or relationships in their community.
  • We are building property across the spectrum of requirements, from the poor to the aged and up to the rich. Whilst the process could be much better, developers are getting access to land, and we hope ever-improving, to electricity which was a real issue a few years ago.
  • In our cities we have leafy suburbs and our own “Hollywoods” and, by and large, we live safely though behind some very high, secured walls.

 

Not a bad situation to be in as a country. Yes it could be better, our cities could be better managed in key areas of delivery, our poor ramshackle areas could be revitalised and our informal settlements are a blight on us, but it is probably fair to say that we have a good property industry overall. In fact, I would be prepared to call it a significant and contributing national asset.

The CEO of the Property Sector Charter Council, Portia Tau-Sekati, presented excellent research to the industry in September. The sector contributes significantly to the country’s economy and in 2009 comprised 8.3% of gross domestic product (GDP), according to a South African Property Owners Association research report entitled “The economic impact of the property sector in South Africa”.

According to the Charter Council’s study, only 1% of the country’s land is urban and residential, about 73% is natural pasture, approximately 12% is agricultural and the remaining land is comprised of conservations and reserves. Two-thirds of the property owned in South Africa is residential and worth R3-trillion, while commercial property is worth R780-billion. Undeveloped land that is zoned for development is valued at R520-billion and publicly owned property, including national, provincial and local government and state-owned enterprises, is worth R570-billion.

“Retail property has the highest value of the commercial property sectors in South Africa at R340-billion, followed by office properties at R228-billion and industrial properties at R187-billion,” the Charter Council reported. “Representing a small comparative value of R25-billion is hospitality, leisure and ‘other’ property.”

According to SAinfo reporter, the study will be an annual one and the Charter Council aims for it to become the benchmark against which progress in the industry is measured. “The study is a useful tool for understanding the South African property market and its dynamics,” Tau- Sekati said.

To read more go here.

I make my point again against the backdrop of this recent and defining research that South Africa can be very proud of its property industry.

Against this backdrop, the SARB’s decision to hold off on an interest rate hike late last month augers well for the industry. Inflation figures will be announced today [19 October 2015] but are expected to remain within the 3-6% range so no serious danger there. Of course, the whole world seems to be waiting for the USA rates decision and we have the unfortunate matter of the weak Rand, ostensibly because of the US$ strength. There is no doubt that the SARB decision, as much as it would like to raise interest to protect the Rand and still inflationary fears, is set against the context of South Africa’s dismal economic growth. That will probably be revised to a 1.5% forecast but it is, at best, hovering unacceptably low.

John Loos, FNB’s Property Economist, speaks to the interest rate and makes valid points as usual. Firstly, a gradual rise in interest rates prevents any need to over-react later and keeps lenders and borrowers cautious. Secondly, he makes the point that lending does not grow the economy but only productive lending does that with any sustainable effect. Finally, he states the obvious that we all need to hear: Indebtedness is not good for our economy [and back pockets] and we should use the low interest rates as an opportunity to reduce our household debts as quickly as possible.

According to Private Property, Cape Town has the most exclusive properties and precincts of incredible value. Private Property, quoting Lightstone research, reports, “Cape Town may not be the financial epicentre of South Africa but it continues to dominate the list of most exclusive addresses and data has revealed that the Mother City lays claim to three of the five most elite addresses in the country. According to the Lightstone research, the most expensive street in South Africa currently is Nettleton Road in Clifton, where the median price for houses is R27.1 million, followed by Glen Beach Road in Camps Bay with an average house price of just under R24m. Head Road in Fresnaye takes fourth place with an average selling price of R21.44m. Sandhurst in Johannesburg scoops third and fifth places with a median sale price of just under R25m in Coronation Road and R20.76m in Rivonia Road. In the list of most expensive addresses in the Western Cape, not surprisingly, four of the five most pricey are situated on the sought-after Atlantic Seaboard, with fourth place taken by Eastcliff in Hermanus.

Lew Geffen says: “The upswing on the Atlantic Seaboard started in 2002 when a property in Chilworth Road in Camps Bay sold for R23m, but the demand for luxury homes really began to peak 2008 when 13 properties in the R20m plus price band changed hands to the combined value of R414.193m.”  “In spite of the credit crunch which hit in 2008, property values on the Atlantic Seaboard have continued to grow exponentially and now it is not only home to the most trophy properties in South Africa; it also fetches the highest price per square metre.”

Closing on this article, Cape Town may be home to the most luxury properties in South Africa, although data from New World Wealth shows that Johannesburg still has the most Dollar millionaires in the country.

So there you have it, Cape Town has the properties and Johannesburg has the money. Like Homeloan Junction’s excellent service, some things never change.

Yours in Property

If you knew you had December to make your business highly successful in 2016, what would you do?

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“‘Tis the Season to be jolly tralalalalalalalah”.

So the carol goes. But just reading the pre-reporting on the Fitch rating which may see SA Inc achieve junk bond status on 4 December 2015, the “jolly” turns to “golly” in one foul swoop.

So for that reason, at the entree to this beautiful Christmas Season [I really struggle with “the Holidays” so please forgive me], I deem it a good idea to write a trilogy of uplifting articles. Trilogy, because I also need a break between Christmas, that very special Holiday, and New Year, that time when all the resolutions kick in.

If you knew you had December to make your business [read Life, if you will] highly successful in 2016, what would you do? Run for the hills, Dream big, Plan, Act, Take advice, Retrench your dead wood, Drink champagne, Motivate your people, Have a workshop, Write your thoughts down, [Eat, Love and] Pray; really, what would you do? This is the month of determination; in it you set the course for all that achieves success in 2016 – so what would you do?

We don’t know your circumstances, but if you’re reading this blog, you probably are a person who seeks to learn by being informed and challenged. You probably take the smallest scraps of thinking and learning and coagulate them into something you can work with to develop yourself and your relationships and your business. If you’re that kind of person, read on. Below are four major highlights that will define your year commercially and which deserve attention this month before you take a break. Four is not magical and I’m sure there may be more for you. However, dedicated focus on these four things are proven to be key ingredients of success.

First, an anecdote from my days at Nedbank.  At one Homeloan conference, a thoughtful organiser put a small card on my pillow that said: To accomplish great things, we must dream as well as act. The quote was by the famous French poet, journalist and novelist, Anatole France, who was awarded the Nobel peace prize for Literature in 1921. Another anecdote, which quote by Zig Ziglar I sent to my Son a few days ago, is: When you catch a glimpse of your potential, that’s when passion is born.

1.Set a Vision bigger than you

You see, Anatole was right to call the dream into being. Nothing in the conditionality he places on action detracts from our God-given right and responsibility to dream. There is  a thought that if your dream doesn’t scare you, it isn’t big enough. I would say that is extreme but something in there does raise the bar. My school motto is Per Ardua ad Astra which means “By hard work to the Stars”. I like that and wouldn’t if I believed in get-rich-quick schemes. It’s the “to the Stars” part that lifts your chin, drives out your fears and burns in your heart. It is the Vision in you that keeps you constantly thinking, wondering, searching and striving until you find the Confidence that this dream, this Vision, is for you. If you can’t buy the “hyper” in what I’m saying, then think about this – What would you like to change so that you double what you have now in one year? Sales, originations, the depth of a relationship, turnover or money? What would it take to do that versus what price you are prepared to pay? If the formula is acceptable to you, then what stops you from achieving that dream? In the stating of it comes the angst of how I would do it; in the envisioning lies the challenge and the risk. But without the genesis of this thought “any ol’ place” would be good enough. If there ever was a distinction between our soul and our spirit, it would be the deep desire for more that lies in the spirit. You can be content with what you have and where you are or you can begin to thirst for more. Set a Vision that is bigger than you. 

2.Determine the time-frame and set the milestones that need to be achieved

Bring your Vision down to earth. Unless you’re a dreamer, dreaming is a beginning but not the desired outcome. Our minds love pictures and can bathe themselves in daydreams and images all day long. Sweet dreams we say to our loved ones, but then they’re going to sleep! Given our December challenge above, there’s no time for sleeping just yet. We can rest later. You need to begin to think out what milestones will direct your achievement and when you would expect to see them on the journey to success. To keep it simple, milestones are quantitative indicators of your achievement. Think of it like this: any salesman loves the “hockey stick” approach to his annual goal. For years I’ve seen that, off target up to September, the super-salesman thinks he can achieve the rest in the last quarter. True maybe, if you’re GM of a holiday resort, but for the rest of us mere mortals, you probably can’t “shoot the lights out” in the final sprint any more than you could in the previous 3 quarters. Salespeople, yes you and me my Originator and Estate Agent friends, love the hockey stick and it’s expected air-punch but, alas, it seldom works. If you’re travelling Joburg to Cape Town in 14 hours, doing 90km/hour for the first 900kms will leave you with much catch-up from Worcester. The problem then is you hit law enforcement, sharp bends through the Hex and more traffic. Life and its achievement is no different and by the time you realise your mistake, it’s too late. From a brain point of view, as you click from the Vision in the right brain, you enter the Reality of the left brain. There you need milestones and a good sense of timing to keep focused on the destination.Determine the time frame and set the milestones that need to be achieved.

  1. Set the goals for the milestones

In point 2 I said the milestones are indicators. Give or take an hour or 30 kilometres, not achieving a particular milestone is not a major issue when you’re on the road. But in business, indications are not enough. Goals are required. If you look at the five pillars of Management Control: Set the Goal, Measure Performance, Evaluate Performance, Correct or Reward and Feedback [into Goal Setting], then you can see that a process is required to control an outcome. “Ag, it’s only 30 minutes” is fine for normal day-to-day driving, but winning rally drivers have their navigators assess their progress by the second, literally. Goals enable the fine tuning necessary for specific achievement. Goals are the hard rock of success. Over is good but Under is simply not acceptable to a Winner. Setting goals is hard work. You need to think and challenge yourself and re-think. You need to drill down into the milestones, decide on the price you’re prepared to pay and then drive out the appropriate, non-negotiable goals you want to achieve. Anything less in a plan is simply wishful thinking and the next time to get to think about it, you’ll be facing the indeterminable “hockey stick” reality. Set the goals for the milestones. Now!

  1. Write down the plan of action

In the Good Book, Habakkuk was told to write the vision down. Hey but it such a cool Vision, why not just announce it and turn it into reality. The reason was simple: We Forget. The plan is the document where you write down the Vision, its milestones and the goals. Then you write down the actions required and mentally rank their level of difficulty so as to understand the obstacles to their achievement. What you need to overcome is as important as prerequisites. You can reach for the stars as long as you like but you better get a ladder or “go virtual”. Not seeing these obstacles to a Plan and dealing them upfront is a figment of the imagination. One word of caution though, as I revert to this almost mathematical process.  Entrepreneurs see the vision, the milestones, the goals and the action plan but often choose to ignore the requirements. Sheer passion says I will [read: want to] do this “whatever it takes”. Fundamental to this approach and attitude is that I am a firm believer that Risk and its concomitant action, Risk Management, is fundamental to success. Entering a business, creating a BIHAG [Big Hairy Audacious Gaol], deciding to marry, all require you to take risks and then manage them. Why? Well, on the one hand, little goals are “more of the same”, they’re incremental and risk mitigating whilst big goals need you to jump at some stage. Once you jump, you’re committed; no turning back. On the other hand, you just cannot see all the pitfalls in the beginning. We often read about the overcoming of a Hilary Tensing team, Ford and Edison. The question is would they have started in the first place if they knew what they would face along the journey? You can’t see it all and the bigger the goal, the longer the timeframe, so the less you can see. But what Reward awaits Success! Write down the plan of action.

So there you have it plain and simple. You now have a choice, get ready to go on leave and just enjoy the silly season, or, do the hard yard to revolutionise your circumstances. It’s always a choice and the choice confronts us many time about many things in life.

In our next part of the trilogy, we’ll have a look at Execution. It truly is the sine qua non of Success. It is the as well as act of Anatole’s quote.

Homeloan Junction epitomises what we’re speaking about. It was built out of the ashes of Sub-Prime to be a top Performer in Evo, Ooba’s Aggregation business, in a few years. Why not approach us to see how we could help you turn your dreams for starting an origination business, or multiplying your existing success, into reality?

Yours in Property.

IT’S TIME TO BE A FOX ( Part 2)

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Our previous blog ” It’s time to be a fox” looked at the concept of hedgehogs and foxes. In this blog, we suggest some assertive behavior for the next period of our economic cycle.

But firstly, let’s reiterate. Hedgehogs

  • know one big thing
  • see the world through a filter of one big idea
  • stretch the idea and build data around it
  • are confident to predict and make many of them
  • drum on about the “tried and tested” formula
  • love complexity
  • are better in stable environments.

Foxes:

  • know many things
  • gather information from a wide spectrum of inspiration and sources
  • are self-critical and update their beliefs when faced with contrary information
  • are cautious about predictions
  • look for a new idea if something is not working
  • drive out with simplicity
  • are better in rapidly changing environments.

With that reminder, we are approaching rapids in our economy. That may sound like “one big idea” but it certainly is the consensus view of many writers at the moment. Just reading JP Landman’s article, Coming to a Standstill, dated 9 September 2015, he states that electricity and strikes initiated the SA growth problem, but these factors have been exacerbated by lack of confidence, a growing chasm between the public and private sectors, and a incoordination in key growth sectors. The SARB has also revised growth predictions and raised interest rates right into the headwind of a deteriorating economy in order to deal inflation. Not pretty at the moment, I’m afraid.

So what should you be, a fox or a hedgehog? We’ve been there before and survived, is a real hedgehog statement. You should’ve been around in 2008 to 2010, is another. Alles sal regkom, is a grand old hedgehog statement, loaded with stoicism and sense of duty. May I put to you that there is another way and explore the alternative.

The Foxy thing to do is to

  1. Review your business Good times layer in costs and make income assumptions. As for costs, scan every cost in your business and eradicate what even smells of complacency. As a radical move, you may wish to signal this effort to your people – stop the cake on Friday, change the coffee brand; just do something that makes everyone aware that times have changed.
  2. Review your activities – Golf on Wednesdays is really cool but stopping it will give you 6 good hours of extra work. And the message for your people will go without saying – news will get around. Start every day with a 2-Do List. Know what is optional and what must be achieved today, without exception. Follow-up on outstanding payments – years in business have taught me that “your best client [read, friend] will always pay you” probably means he is battling to pay. The other poor souls have already passed that point and you need to be the one creditor who collects. In property, chase up registrations and outstanding mandates. Remember management control is: Setting standards, Measurement, Evaluation, Correction or Reward and a Feedback Loop. Nothing short of that journey, is Control. Don’t delegate control if you’re accountable – by the time “your bank account tells you” it could be too late.
  3. Accept a Lower Standard of Living but not a Lowering of Standards: You can be poor but you don’t have to be dirty. Values drive behaviour and the values in your firm can leave space for facing the negative reality in the bad times, but not for excuses. You cannot create motivation but you certainly can channel it. Don’t allow your people to become de-motivated. There is a process of excellence in the business that needs to be maintained; maintain it. Customers certainly don’t need to know if you’re responsibly dealing with lowered economic growth. Stand up when answering the phone, convey positivity in your voice and your eyes, remain solutions-orientated and think possibility – there is nothing like sticking your chest out and tilting your chin upwards to make bad vibes go away. Remember your brain doesn’t know if you’re imagining or telling the truth when you decide to be positive in the face of circumstances. Imagination rules your world.
  4. Hunt for business: I have sat in airports recently reading the newspaper. I have even read the latest RW Johnson book and I am convinced that the day you believe it’s over, it is. Hunt for business. If you don’t someone else will. Jack Welsh had a famous saying: “Take control of your life, or somebody else will.” How true! No excuses, just down-to-earth action. No half-jobs, just hard work. If you want to read the paper and believe that China is your road to success, then go and work somewhere else. Remember this, people don’t leave you when they leave; they leave you in their heads a long time before that. You wish they would leave when they “opt-out” because that would save you money. The problem is they leave after months of “trying”, hours of toxic conversation with others, and a couple of unhappy customers. Watch for it in the daily activities and attitudes. Root it out asap. On the other hand, where genuine efforts are made by those great people who are with you for the long-run, encourage them and build them up. Remind them that “this too will pass” and that Action Conquers Fear.
  5. Find Inspiration: Running a business is tiring and battling cashflow, exhausting. Find a friend, a confidante, to whom you can turn. Pray, read, take “me time”, breathe deeply – 10 out, 10 in – to relax and replenish your soul. You can only give what you have, and be who you are. It is fair to say that your people “don’t need their leader with sweat on their brow.”
  6. Change BEFORE it hurts: It is always written about for one simple reason, people change WHEN it hurts. It is so difficult to simulate adversity in a successful company. It feels treasonous to even speak about the need to alter course when the island of delight is right on course. But, change you must. Bill Gates puts it this way:

When your business is healthy, it is difficult to behave as if you are in a crisis. That is why one of the toughest parts of managing, especially in a high-tech business, is to recognise the need for change and make it while you still have a chance.

Lots more could be said on this subject. Truth is that this is not the only recession we have faced and we have come through. Whether or not there is fundamental difficulty in this one, remains to be seen. Chance is there is little you can do to change that. But for foxes, they take inspiration from many sources, they re-consider the tried-and-tested, they try-abandon-try until their possibility thinking becomes their reality and their “new normal” meets their definition of excellence despite changed circumstances. They encourage others. They trade in hope and they are merchants of good news, truthfully spoken. Their word is their bond and their people trust them.

Hedgehogs have a place as well. They may be the very calm in the storm your company needs right now. Their idea may be good despite not ever pretending to be the silver bullet. Like all people, make allowances for them to enrich your team.

Yours in Property.

Take control of your monthly expenses today! [Free HLJ Budget Tool]

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Funny how things happen at the same time!

In this post we will give you our Homeloan Junction Budget Tool and refer to a Moneyweb Today article. The Moneyweb post arrived just as I put the finishing touches to the HLJ Budget Tool. Serendipitous, I would say!

So why the Tool?

Most of us don’t have a budget. We live from hand-to-mouth, month-to-month and while away our time and our money on necessities and fancies. The danger is that as this forms a habit pattern, we wonder where the money’s gone and why there’s so much month. Month after month, year after year, we live as if there is no tomorrow financially. Often, if we’re really honest with ourselves, we take on bad habits in the process – we eat, drink and smoke too much. After all, life is stressful, you know. Then, we may rack up some unexpected medical bills in the process as we get older. All part of life, you know.

6% of South Africans can retire comfortably. In case you wonder about the other 94%, they don’t retire comfortably by level of degree.

What we mean by that is that the next 6 % below the “comfortable 6%”, live a little less than “comfortable”. Starting to experience the world of retirement myself a little, I have family in their 80’s. Retired since age 58, 25 years later they’re finding prices very high. Thank Goodness, they have not squandered their money but things are tight – much tighter than when they retired.

What we learn from this is that retiring with income that rises, or is supplemented with assets that may be sold, is wise financial planning. So, the next 6% behind the second 6%, is probably already not ready to retire at all in South Africa; of a truth, the situation quickly becomes dire and a Government pension of about R1600 per month, rising at 6-7% per annum, does not satisfy even basic needs.

Everything in our beautiful, tortured country points to sadness as we ponder these thoughts. My wife read me an article the other day that said one of the greatest gifts you can give your children is to not be a burden to them in your retirement. Oh may that be a simple goal for you when you finish reading this blog!

Get the full Moneyweb article here – MONEYWEB-TODAY-ARTICLE.pdf

Using elementary Excel, I have created a Tool for you to budget. Customise it for your own circumstances and please note that the numbers are just examples, so put your own in.The Tool allows for your Gross Income. It then deducts your direct expenses like UIF, Income Tax etc to arrive at your Net Income Before Expenses.

Then it deducts two kinds of Expenses: Need To Have’s and Want To Have’s. Call them what you want and re-arrange the items as you wish [after all, we need a little retail therapy or entertainment some time J] but just be true to yourself. Question what you earn and what you spend honestly. Commission earners especially project their earnings – like true sales people, they often believe they are going to earn more and spend less than they really do over the long-run. Don’t fool yourself. And, if you really want to test your reality, then commit to an extra amount repaid monthly on your bond and see how good you are at sticking at it.

You can download your copy of this tool here –HLJ-Budget-Tool.xls 

The point is, every few hundred Rands you save in this exercise could literally put you into the top 6% at retirement. And, keep you there.

 Now to the final points……….

1. I am not a financial advisor, so speak to yours and begin to commit to a long-term savings plan. Retirement Annuities, Satrix, DBX’s etc are great vehicles to discipline your savings. And, by the way, remember some Life and Disability cover for those you love, if you don’t make it.

I have tried to teach all financial levels of people the simple fact of compounded interest. By the way, Albert Einstein called it his “most profound” learning. Two elements for now:

  • R100 invested for 10 years and 20 years at 8% is R18294.60 and R58902.04 respectively. The compounding is not a straight line as interest on interest continues to kick in the more you save.
  • The inverse of this, which the Insurance industry correctly calls “the cost of delay”, is that if you want R60000 , then the faster you start saving the less you have to save. R60000 costs you R101.86 over 20 years and R327.97 over 10 years, both at 8%.

2. I am a banker, so back to the tired old truth that your bond is a good place to save. Whatever interest you save is at your bond rate after tax.

For example, at a bond rate of 10%:

Bond: R80000
Years to go: 20
Repayment: R7720.17
Total Paid: R1852841.56
Interest spent: R1052841.56
Payment increase of 20%: R9264.21
Years to pay: 12.83 years
Total paid: R1426688.00

Original total payment less new total payment: R1852841.56-R1426688.00 = R426153.56

SAVING AFTER TAX: R426153.56

Homeloan Junction cares. This blog may seem trite and simplistic to some. To others, it may just be the spark of new financial life. If it touches one life today then the last two hours writing and calculating has been worth every minute.

Yours in Property