EVERYWHERE

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News is everywhere at the moment. When I worked, I read a lot but in a very restricted sense: Business, Banking and Academics. It was more than enough to be conversant and skilled.

Now, I read on two or three platforms and then try to piece together some coherent trend that may be of interest to you. It needs to be positive as far as possible but also informative and at least from a property perspective, assist you given that your busy days may not permit that much reading.

So let’s kick off…

Bloomberg is telling us that the JSE is set to come good this year, even outperforming other markets. That’s amazing news especially seeing that the stock market has moved sideways for the last 5 years. As a general rule, [read: balanced funds] the market has been very close to static whilst the S&P has super-performed at about 30% growth including the Nasdaq, in 2019. The latter is already up 7.26% year-to-date and February is yet a pup. Did you miss the boom in USA stocks – no pity here, join the club ☺ As regards the JSE which has been outperformed even by Cash fully taxed, I have no idea where Bloomberg is coming from. I understand that shares are looking decidedly under-valued, but I thought that that was because we’re almost in recession. I really hope they’re right and the JSE flies; nothing like the national feeling of wealth to promote that invisible gem: consumer confidence.

Then Corona. The name on every TV screen and normally limited to SciFi. Superbugs are no joke. Saturday recorded the highest number of deaths at 89, bringing the total to 811. Last I heard, about 30000 people are affected which has probably increased since then. The best advice I’ve read is forget facemasks, wash your hands frequently and don’t touch your face.

That said, cities in lockdown have the feel of Bruce Willis in Armageddon movies; quite eerie and surreal. Very frightening for those trapped and hugely inconvenient for cruise ships and aeroplanes. But beyond our creature comforts, trade is shutting down as countries prohibit cross-border travel and the movement of goods. Frankly, if Corona was in Cambodia or the likes, it would have about as much impact on global trade as an outbreak of Ebola in Mali. But China, that’s another story; a huge trading story. I thought Shares would be more rattled but not so thus far. So let’s hope they are able to contain it and treat it to insignificance for everyones’ sake.

Fresh from Sydney this morning on WhatsApp…”Looks like SA, UK and Australia all had terrific storms. We had a year’s rain over the weekend.” “Shew! Fires out? I replied, and “Yep, well doused” was the answer. That’s stunning so now the animals can begin to get cared for. One thing I think I’ve mentioned before, last year’s 18000Ha fire though Bettys Bay has stimulated a massive repair and construction project in the area to rebuild properties. I think Australia has 2000 houses destroyed so the same will happen there.

The Rand is the cheapest currency in the world. That’s according to the Big Mac Index. So, all you McDonalds burger-loving people, go home this evening with a Family Pack; according to the world-famous Index, you’re eating cheaply. But what is interesting is how Oil has declined and we’re enjoying a welcomed respite in Fuel prices despite the Rand moving from R13.80 in late-December to R15 recently. I see Iran is now mothballing some Oil fields in order to stimulate the global price of Oil so probably expect a rise in price next month.

The Bank Rate is decreasing, and I remain surprised as I said last time. But it’s good news and 0.5% starts to be meaningful in most households. On a R1m bond, that’s R400 per month less. Point for me is not the saving for clients used to paying about R8775 per month but for those who are battling to pay it’s welcome relief. The other sector positively affected are those First-time homebuyers who are considering entering the market. Right now, they’re a big part of what’s moving and encouraging them is very positive for the industry.

Eskom is load shedding… De Ruyter has his job cut out but at least he’s keen and has moved on the divisionalisation of the mammoth structure to make it more manageable.

On Wednesday I’ve been invited to The Marine, one of our 5-star hotels, to hear Dr Andrew Golding. Very exciting for the sleepy coastal town of Hermanus and we’ll get to eat free canapes with the Jones ☺. I’ve asked my neighbour, one of the most successful estate agents who invited me, to ask him to give us his opinions on EWC. Right now, that stands for: Eish We’re Contracting but it seems the President is intent on forging ahead. The very fact that he’s doing that in concert with implementing other Nasrec 2017 resolutions in order to maintain his support in the ANC, is symbolic of the potential downside.

I am sensitised to the need for redistribution of land, however, was seemingly lulled into thinking that the land would be dormant and unused and that anyone who queried the decision to get Nothing for it had recourse to the Courts. But now there is a real concern that residential property is incorporated in the definition by default and that the State may have the say. It’s speculation right now as the deadline for commentary has been extended [Have you given input to the government?] to end-February 2020 but given the trust deficit between this government and its citizens, there’s no smoke without a fire.

Sadly, as much as the incumbent President may give reassurances to us, even Mcabesi Jonas in his book, After Dawn: Hope After State Capture, states that an ANC about to lose the next election may have the need to accelerate “structural reform” for votes. That is deeply concerning in my humble opinion. “Watch this space!”, as the President was wont to say in his early days. Dr Andrew’s comments will be very interesting…he’s an outstanding person.

By the way, if you’re economically minded, you will really enjoy Mcebisi’s book. He is obviously a huge asset to the country and his Foreword by Cyril Ramaphosa is heart-warming. His opening sentence is, “In October 2015, the Gupta brothers offered me the position of minister of finance in exchange for R600 million.” Thank you for saying, “No!”

So, let’s quote the man who is still the political head of Eskom, and “join the dots.” Looking at the above, so much is happening in the world and in our country. What we have mentioned is snippets of your daily macro- and micro-environments. Yet you and I labour in the overdose of news and find our optimism often despite it. There is one thing though with which I’d like to close this blog today and it comes from January’s Standard Bank House Price Index. I love it and I close with it and a few comments:

January house prices post 5.5%
But, sustained real house price growth still some way off

  • Nominal house prices growth, per our inhouse Standard Bank House Price Index (HPI), increased to 5.5% y/y in January, from a marginally downwardly revised 4.3% (previously 4.4% y/y) in December. The January HPI grew 1.0% m/m, after growth of 0.9% m/m in December, the first time since October 2018 that nominal house price growth has recorded more than 5% y/y. In 2019, house prices growth averaged 4.0% y/y, slightly below average headline consumer inflation of 4.1% y/y.

Outlook and implications

  • This may be the start of sustained momentum. Indeed, residential mortgage advances have supported house price growth, having averaged 4.8% y/y in 2019, from 3.5% y/y in 2018. The cumulative 50 bps rate cut since July 2019 and prospects of further easing should keep supporting nominal house price growth.
  • Nevertheless, house price real growth still seems some way off given that both lenders and borrowers remain cautious amid sustained economic fundamental weakness along with highly uncertain economic conditions. Specifically, both consumer and business confidence remain depressed, with all SA consumers remaining pessimistic about future economic performance. And, the country is on the brink of being downgraded by Moody’s to non-investment grade, which will lead to SA falling out of the WGBI, and power cuts will persist for at least the next 18 months. Even the expected global growth recovery now faces new downside risks such as the as yet unknown outcome of the coronavirus outbreak.

HPI in detail

  • Sectional title property price growth rose further to 7.2% y/y in January, from 6.0% y/y in December. Sectional title property prices growth had bottomed at 0.6% y/y in April 2019 but recently surpassed growth in freehold property prices. In contrast, growth in freehold property prices slowed to 5.7% y/y in January, from 5.8% y/y in December, having peaked at 11.7% y/y in January 2019.
  • Gauteng property prices accelerated to 6.8% y/y in January, from 5.5% y/y in December; Western Cape grew 3.0% y/y from just 0.3% y/y in December. KwaZulu-Natal property prices moderated to 7.7% y/y, from 9.4% y/y in December.

So, despite the lapse into negativity on the third bullet, here is what I garner from this research:

  1. Gauteng growth in HPI is starting to move and eclipses Western Cape by more than double. I’ve been calling that for years and I’m so glad for you guys. Long may it last!
  2. Security remains paramount as the sectional title continues to fly. I think First-timers are in there as well and many prices are in the “moving” range, say, <R2.5m.
  3. 5.5% growth is a real increase of 1.2% with this quarter’s inflation forecast at 4.3%. Little in the scheme of things but I’ll take real growth in house prices any month; so would you.

But the statement that got me going was this: “This may be the start of sustained momentum.” You see, when Standard Bank says that’s a possibility, I sit up and listen. They then go on to ground that in mortgage advances growth so it’s not a wish-list, its concomitant with the readiness of the banks to lend and the affordability of clients to borrow. I say again, I love that. And again, long may it last despite the current “everywhere” headwinds.

Lift your heads. In all of the news, there are snippets of information that portend some growth. How or where, I’m not debating but that there are many positives, I’m putting it out there. Think about it.

Yours in Property.

TIME FOR THOUGHT

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Every now and again, I use this platform to “talk psychology”. I have many friends who send me stuff on Whatsapp and email, some of which is so appropriate for the time. I read it, try to memorise it but in the end, I just enjoy it by appropriating it into my season of life. Sometimes, like you, I let it just wash over me – humour, psychology, healthy foods, exercise and sleep, positive thinking, and the role of dreams, thoughts and actions. Sometimes it’s what I internalised from years of study and self-analysis but other times, it’s so recent, so up to date, that it’s just fresh and new and vibrant.

If I tell you that there were two great books my Father made me read, they are: How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie and the other is, The Power of Positive Thinking by Reverend Norman Vincent Peale. Funnily enough, the first was on top of the bookshelf of the house in which we stayed over the weekend with our children and grandson. The second, Vincent put out Peale’s famous words in his daily Thought for Today email. Serendipity, coincidence or, for me, God-incidence? I’m just going to briefly “pen” my thoughts as I have experienced them in these two books and beyond.

Thank you, Norman Vincent Peale!

Be so strong that nothing can disturb your peace of mind.

How strong is that? What has life thrown you that seemed impossible to escape or overcome? Did you feel the knot in your tummy as you ploughed through the storm? But, the big but, did you get through? Are you the living proof that you can face the storms of life and succeed? Did you learn, prosper, develop character, gain the capacity to share with others, from a place of understanding and strength? Was the “nothing” good for you or in the process of enduring did you learn that forgiveness is not passive but a quiet gift of powerful release? Did you experience that Love does “endure in every circumstance”? Is your mind now at peace, reconciled to the facts and yet powerfully inclined to the future?

Talk health, happiness, and prosperity to every person you meet.

We’ve written so much about health and sleep. Exercise is not an additional extra, movement is fundamental to your body and to your mind. I have struggled with a shoulder operation for the past 5 months and have missed gym entirely. I cannot tell you the aggravation that makes me feel – I’m unfit, and stressed. In the process, I have enjoyed Christmas and eaten seafood [I see food and I eat it ☺]. But now I’m cutting back, disciplining control, and feeling better. I have the go-ahead from the Orthopod to gym in February. I’m happy just thinking about it. But, you see, I could have a body like Marc Buckner, but Peale says, “Talk…to every person you meet.” Why? Because many of them need to hear your falling and standing up, that prosperity matters, and they can be prosperous again and that health may be recuperated and they will not stay like they’re feeling now. Encourage, encourage and encourage again – you may not need it, or one day you will – just keep talking to people about “health, happiness and prosperity.”

Make all your friends feel there is something special in them.

Ever heard of “sparks”? I learned the word when my niece brought home a group of friends. They chattered and giggled away and every now and again the chit-chat mentioned boys. I realised then that there are two kinds of men, those who give them “sparks” and those who don’t ☺. But everyone has “special”, you have special! Some call it charm or a talent, others may think it’s your dimple, maybe it’s a quirky smile, perhaps your random acts of kindness – who knows? But everyone has “special”. Are you or I so self-centred that we cannot find it in everyone? Of course, we like some more than others but that’s not the point. In the same way you like someone pointing out positive about you, so do they. Lift your head, even this morning, and chat to someone at the coffee machine. Find their special and make their day. I bet you, they’ll start looking for yours and others’ to compliment. Happiness goes viral.

Look at the sunny side of everything.

This is hard. Eggs are sunny side up. East is where the sun rises. But everything!? You know you get those people who walk around all day with a perpetual grin, cheery and smiley and attentive. You find them in a few McDonalds and often in a Vidae. They make me uncomfortable after a while but, they’re doing their job. This much I can say, there are people I know who are never negative. The most famous is Gail Kelly of Australian fame – positive, forward-thinking, solutions-orientated and forever learning and developing herself and others. What a privilege to have worked with her, and no wonder she became Australia’s most successful banker even in the midst of sub-Prime. She tells in her book that her father never allowed anything but a positive answer and lived as her role model to that truth. What about you and I? How do we score in others’ minds on a scale of 1-10?

Think only the best,

You see, it’s often the genesis of your thinking that sets the scene. I often say that it’s your attitude at the beginning of a task that determines 50%+ of its outcome. From washing breakfast dishes to having a successful day at work. Nothing is too little to not be thought of as “the best.” That includes you. Cheesy and as timed as you believe, you are the best. Start within and exude without. Your worst competition is inside, and you can’t preach the measles if you’ve got the mumps. You are who you are, but you don’t need to remain who you are. You have all the life in you to make a success and you are the best…for your children, your colleagues, your elderly parents. And if you got this far, you are sufficient for the journey forward. In many cases, you are the only thing that others have to hope in. “Think only the best” is not a well-worn cliché; it can often be the only mindset that can get you out of where you’re at and take you up to heights you’ve never scaled before. Nothing beats an attitude of gratitude and there is a power to positive thinking. I’ve said it many times, we are the sum total of our thoughts to any point in time.

be as enthusiastic about the success of others as you are about your own.

For some of us with a root of jealousy, this is really hard. The success of others drives us to drink. I enjoy the success of others – business partners, friends, family, whoever – I congratulate and honour their success. For those still struggling to reach their objectives, a word of encouragement and, as far as possible, assistance with the obstacles they face. I would love to see them properly on their feet again. By the way, you may say, “I don’t have this problem,” but I see it a lot in the world of estate agency. It’s called “competition” and it’s a fight to the end. “My commission, your commission..”, “my sale, your lead..” and on and on.. Sad to see it wrapped in “competition”, coming through as we slate each other “in a dignified manner.” Stop it, rid your system of it! Enjoy the success of others and you may be amazed how your success improves. Co-opetition is also a sound business practice.

Forget the mistakes of the past and

Did you and I read that? Do you know what “forget” means? Of course, we all battle in this area. “I’ve forgiven him….but I’ll never forget….Huff! Puff!” And the problem is that we apply that to ourselves as well. We denigrate and debilitate ourselves with issues and vows [I swear I will never allow that to happen to me..again!] and self-limiting beliefs to the point that we have nothing but a brittle platform from which to relaunch our lives. Please, step back from your mistakes. They were only intended to construct the reinforcement of learning.

Quoting from yesterday’s email of quotes that I received:

You build on failure. You use it as a steppingstone. Close the door on the past. You don’t try to forget the mistakes, but you don’t dwell on it. You don’t let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
– Johnny Cash

You may remember Johnny Cash. He was the rich singer who went wild and then converted his life back to hope and prosperity in every sense of the word.

Press on to the greater achievements of the future.

Attraction is the gist of this thought. “Concentrate on the rewards of success rather than the penalties of failure”, said Dr Dennis Waitley who was then the team psychologist of the NASA space programme. You scared of being fried in a botched rocket lift-off? Let’s focus on being the first man to walk in space; a forerunner of many who will do it for a living. Attraction: what you think about most and execute upon. We’ve often used the analogy of falling in love – she is all you every think about and you do anything for her happiness. Success is like that…I love the Nedbank ad where this guy talks to this beautiful “baby” in his garage and it turns out to be [not a lady, not a bike, not a car], his fledgling business that he started there. You see many will tell you that you get what you think about most. Truth is you won’t if you don’t but so many positive stories start with a tiny thought; Walt Disney’s quote always comes to mind: “Don’t despise little things. After all, this began with a mouse.” So, Press with all the energy you can muster.

Give everyone a smile.

It really is free. If the only thing we do today is give one person a smile, then we have achieved much. I walked into a petrol station café yesterday and the two ladies were so cheerful that I commented later to my wife how great it was to buy cooldrinks there. I would return for those friendly people and their smiles. Two things for those of us in business: Customers return to smiles and, customers avoid rudeness. Let the one into your business, and avoid the other like the plague. That was not the only café in the street, and I may buy there again sometime.

Spend so much time improving yourself that you have no time left to criticize others.

I really think this is self-explanatory. I have a friend who personifies this. Faced with many challenges and always trying to build new businesses, he is a constant learner and self-developer. He seldom criticizes others and if it seems he has, it is just a sojourn to have learnt from what they might have done. Try it, it works.

Be too big for worry and

This is huge. I think we all worry, don’t we? If we didn’t have some stress, we would have no stress and that’s also dangerous. Many things are achieved when driven. What’s obvious in the gym is just as obvious in our heads and hearts. But, it’s the focus on worry as a thought pattern that becomes the problem. Think of it this way, if it gets you launched into good action, it’s positive; if it bogs you down into inaction, it’s negative.

Too noble for anger.

Peale finishes his quote here. The Good Book says, “Be angry and sin not” [Eph 4:26]. I love the way Peale puts it, be “too noble”. “Having or showing fine personal qualities or high moral principles”, is the way Google dictionary puts it. I like that. Anger festers, apology and forgiveness heal especially over time.

I trust you may read these books or blow the dust off if you own them. On many bookshelves, I’m sure they have custard coloured pages but they’re worth a read. In any case, if you’ve got something from this blog, it was well-intended. We don’t need scientists to tell us we use a small proportion of our brains; we can just take what we have and keep pressing forward to become what we desire to be. Success, as you journey and may 2020 allow you all the space and positive energy to achieve everything you set out to do.

Yours in Property.

PS: The full quote from Vincent, in case you missed it:

Be so strong that nothing can disturb your peace of mind. Talk health, happiness, and prosperity to every person you meet. Make all your friends feel there is something special in them. Look at the sunny side of everything. Think only the best, be as enthusiastic about the success of others as you are about your own. Forget the mistakes of the past and press on to the greater achievements of the future. Give everyone a smile. Spend so much time improving yourself that you have no time left to criticize others. Be too big for worry and too noble for anger.


Norman Vincent Peale

2020

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2020

It has a certain ring to it, doesn’t it? “20/20” is the famous saying for sight and for fore-sight. I knew 40 years ago that I would be 65 years of age in 2020. It wasn’t important then; just a notion. But, here I am today at 9 0’ clock in the evening punching out a blog to some readers who I hope may read it and internalise a little of what I have to say. Surreal really, like a radio announcer talking into a mic with one million people listening [so his Ad agency tells him] but actually, on Talk-Radio, only the people phoning in giving him any indication if what he is talking about is even heard. That’s the life of a blogger.

So, this blogger is angry tonight as I‘ve just seen that Jabu Mabuza has resigned from Chairman of the Eskom board. I didn’t bother to read any further but first I hope this was impulsive and that his buddies in the ANC will stop sipping their champagne in the poorest province in SA for one minute to consider that they have just annoyed to the nth degree the man who turned around Telkom to being a player in the communications industry despite the fact that its mainline business would never be able to compete with WiFi, locally or globally.

You see, the Digital Age is the antithesis of the telephone business. He saw that and positioned Telkom for the future. From R7.50 to R75 the share price rose under his leadership (please forgive me if I have some of the details wrong or I’ve overstated the facts.) Bottom line, he oversaw the success of Telkom, it’s separation from the Post Office, and then left the company to manage Eskom. He then had the guts to stand in for the 10th CEO when he resigned in exhaustion and was to return to his Chairman role after de Ruyter took up his new CEO role in the organisation. Can you imagine being de Ruyter going home tonight brimming with new ideas on how to turn Eskom around and the Chairman who appointed him resigns?

So, who’s to blame? The ANC. That the deputy president can tell the public that the Eskom board “lied” to the President when they told him the 13th of January would be the next date for load-shedding, is a disgrace of the highest order. Imagine any corporation, battling with the ineptitude of the corrupt past, that tells the Commander in Chief it will deliver a certain outcome but then fails, being told that it “lied” to the CIC! How the donner could Jabu or anyone else have guaranteed the outcome given the cockups that mark Eskom’s national disgrace? Really! But for the deputy president to insult such a strong, committed man with this rubbish is just insufferable for All of Us. Inexcusable!

So, that off my chest, I spoke to the real Commander in Chief today. No, not Donald Trump, not General Solly Shoke, the head of the South African Defence Force, not President Cyril Ramaphosa, but our own MD, Vincent du Preez. He got me going on 2020 and he said something like this: “Get going. 20 new deals, 20 new consultants, 20 new goals, 20 new Rm deals, 20 extra deals per month. WHATEVER, just take 20 and make it happen!!!”

I want to take that theme and challenge you to 20 Do’s and 20 Don’ts. 

The Do’s:

  1. Find 20 reasons to succeed not 20 reasons to fail.
  2. Find 20 new estate agents that learn to trust you.
  3. Never go to bed without 20 calls to new customers per month.
  4. Set a goal for 20 registrations per month.
  5. Get 20 more registrations per month.
  6. Find 20 reasons to be grateful.
  7. Write down the 20 reasons to be grateful and read them when you’re not.
  8. Execute 20 things this year that contribute to business – just 2 per month.
  9. Be ahead of your target by 20%.
  10. Increase your team by 20%.
  11. Improve the motivation of those around you by 20%.
  12. Challenge 20% of your competition to Top Salesperson of the area.
  13. Lift last year’s performance by 20%.
  14. Be 20% more positive.
  15.  Be 20% more energetic.
  16. Take 20% of your income and save it for retirement.
  17. Improve your relationships with those you love by 20%.
  18. Make a list of 20 things you want to do before you become too old to do them.
  19. Improve your income by 20%.
  20. Let 20% be your minimum increment when it comes to anything meaningful in your life.


Shew! That was a mouthful, but here are 20 things you want to avoid in 2020:

  1. Negativity in general.
  2. Negative people.
  3. Negative Press. This is a real tough one for me because I’ve had to cull Daily Maverick to remain somewhat positively sane. I get enough bad news every day on Google and N24 and BizNews to keep me going for a month.
  4. Negative predictions. Even mine!!!
  5. Negative colleagues. The only time you want to listen to negative colleagues is when you feel you could uplift them. You cannot live on commission and negativity at the same time.
  6. Contradictions. Today the World Bank told SA that we would grow at 0.9% this year. On the same day, Bank of America said they would buy SA stocks as the JSE is set for a rebound. You make sense of that and then invest your money wisely!?
  7. Self-doubts. If you think you can or you can’t, you’re probably right.
  8. Your own capacity. Think yourself up, not down.
  9. Listening to others. Bless them, they mean well but at the end of the day, you’re in charge of your life.
  10. Distractions. Every one of them.
  11. Negative self-talk. Your worst enemy is inside. Let me repeat: Your worst enemy is inside.
  12. Over-sleeping. I have not read it, but Robin Sharma has written a book called The 5AM Club which seems to suggest early rising is an initiation for success. I’m excited – I rise early.
  13. It happens to others. Nonsense! It can happen to you. Siya Kolisi has left an indelible mark on each of us in the last few months. He said, “I trained to be ready for opportunity when it came.” Let’s face it, which part of that may we not understand? Keep going.
  14. Corruption pays. It doesn’t. And that even includes extended smoke breaks at the expense of your boss. It’s theft of time and you will be the loser.
  15. Denying family responsibility. Don’t allow your work to steal from your family. The one lasts while the company is successful, the other, for eternity.
  16. Don’t compromise. Of course, you have to deal with the intricacies of the business world, but at the end of the day, your integrity will grow old with you.
  17. Don’t ever think the world owes you something. Bill Gates settled this matter; the world owes you nothing. What you get is what you work for and what you work through is what you get.
  18. Life is easy. Stop thinking that. Life delivers upon your effort as a general rule but allow for deviations. They’re not bad luck, they’re life. The way you deal with them is what matters.
  19. I can do it alone. Yes, you may, but is it what you want? Take a loved one/s with you. Take a team with you and even a whole business. In the end you’ll be better for it. Shared is better, I think.
  20. I can’t do it. YES, YOU CAN!


This has been one of my more impromptu blogs. I’m sure I’ll get into the detail of the property industry and what 2019 has left us to deal with in due course. But for now, let’s let the ring of 2020 mean something to us. It sounds like a fresh start, a little bit of positive quirkiness in our lives. And what we know is that we have everything we need to succeed otherwise, how would we have got this far? Be positive, be committed, be focussed – you ever know what may be around the corner just waiting for you to grasp and run with.

Successful 2020 in every sense of the term.

Thank you, Vincent, for being an inspiration.

Yours in Property.

HAVE YOU TOUCHED AN ORCHID LEAF?

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It must be the spirit of Christmas that drives me to write this last blog for the year.

I have just read the December 2019 report produced by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace entitled: Nuclear Enrichment: Russia’s Ill-fated Influence Campaign in South Africa. It is the story of the association that nearly cost our country its autonomy. Totalling R1,088,320,000,000, it would have bankrupted us, leaving us on an economic rubbish heap from which we could only have ceded the assets of the nation to repay our debt to Russia. But then, there is the orchid leaf….

I was asked this morning to wipe the leaves of our orchids. They have become dusty from strong winds with little rain blowing over the construction of a new gym in a nearby sports complex. The leaf is strong, almost like an aloe in surface texture but, of course, much thinner. It is easily broken; I accidentally cracked one vein and will wait to see if it repairs itself. It is deep green and obviously soaks up the sun. The plants stand in a breeze and even in the flimsiest of soil, they gather whatever moisture they can from the atmosphere. For those of you interested, they are fed a diet of two ice blocks a week with the odd pouring of water in and from an emptied milk carton [like their owner, they like long life full cream milk [because it tastes like Ideal Milk ☺]].

A colourful picture is at the top of this blog fyi.

That leaf spoke lessons to me. 2019, not perhaps the brightest of years for many and again one loaded with all the bathos and paradox of our tortured, beautiful country. For some, it has delivered unexpected records whilst for others, it has delivered sorrow and hardship. Remember, Life is a railway track: Blessing is one of those tracks and the other, Opposition. They operate together and co-exist, only joining at the distant horizon. There are many lessons from the metaphor and I briefly summarise some for your consideration.

Humour in Adversity:

We manage to laugh at ourselves. Last night our complex had a party in the park to celebrate the arrival of our swallows [people from overseas who come for their summer holidays] and just wish each other well for the Season. At one point my neighbour laughed at the fact that we start off well and then start talking about South African woes. We paused to reflect on our troubles, stared at our chilled wine, and then remembered that as a civil engineer, his job included building sewerage works. A number of the best sewerage works in the country, nogal!

Needless to say, the shitty jokes started and the back-slapping ended the woe-is-me and ushered in the more intellectual and sensitive conversation that wine in the great outdoors produces. You see adversity, even the worst of it, is offset by humour. When last did you laugh from your belly? For that moment, like hitting a little white ball on a golf course, your troubles leave and your joy abounds. Try laughter and fun. Nothing negative can co-exist with their pleasure.

Hope in Chaos:

We have been hit by 100-year drought and the suffering has been insufferable. We have endured tornados in mid-KZN. By the way, talking to my sharp, old neighbour this morning, in the mid-40’s Brakpan was devastated by a tornado; we reminisced that we were pleased our place of birth is still standing! But we have also had floods and once again, Centurion and KZN took their frequent hit.

Life has storms and times of drought; sometimes we wish it stable and constant but it delivers opposites. Hope, our old friend to which we have often spoken, lift our heads in these times. If you’re out of it, lift your head. If you’re in it, lift another’s.

Perspective of what can be:

Another friend is Perspective. I have recently watched the World War 2 episodes on Netflix. I love war movies but I’m never quite clear why. Blood and guts and troops running into almost certain death voluntarily so that we could remember them on Poppy Day and be grateful for the Liberty and Life they fought for. But one thing that never ceases to amaze me on the face of troops and POW’s, is the odd smile. I watched as Bomber Battalion prepared to fly sortie after sortie into Nazi Europe with a 50% chance of returning; as they mustered and gave slight smiles, they must have had some awesome sense of perspective. They “knew” that they would come home and that eventually, the world would be a better place for their sacrificial service. Faced with far less serious issues, I put to you that your perspective, your sense of “what can be”, can lift you and keep you up there no matter what.

Live the moment:

I’m going to finish here. It’s a platitude that is oft used and seldom implemented. However, in this Season of goodwill and family, why not give it a try? The past is but a memory – thank God for the many good ones. The future is what it is, uncertain but probably not as bad as our most negative thoughts have imagined. To the point of Carnegie’s report, we came so close to catastrophe…. but we didn’t. Brave journalists had a confidential report leaked to them, Chapter 9 institutions stood up and fought way above their weight in court, and honest politicians took the yoke of “not-in-my-name” upon them. We dodged the bullet or experienced another miracle whatever your conviction, but we saved our national autonomy from the fire.

There is a Season before us. Families will come together and put away their differences. Gifts will be handed out to gesture our love for each other. Peace will be felt in most places and food will adorn many of our tables. Fairy lights will dispel darkness and even though that sounds like an Eskom joke, we’ll smile as they flicker on the tree.

Many will not have Christmas as they endure poverty for another year; in South Africa the opportunity always exists in no mean measure, to share an act of kindness and generosity. Just Do It! But most of all, soak it all in and for the next few days, let bygones be bygones and the future look after itself.

Homeloan Junction is grateful for you. For your care and support in this year and, in advance, for the year to come. 2020 has a good ring to it, doesn’t it? See you soon in it.

And in all the glitter of the occasion, touch an orchid leaf. You will be glad you did.

Yours in Property. 

A COMMENT AT THE END

/in /by

2019 will go down as one of those years we would like to forget.

I’m always reminded as I say that that things could have been worse. A defeat of Ramaphosa in December 2017, just 2 years ago, would have made the last month of Eskom look like a kiddies’ sleepover in comparison. Eskom would have bankrupted within 6 months and Dudu would have flown SAA into the ground. Losing employment would not have been an option so more people and leadership would have been recruited to fix the mess and finally, the goodwill towards the country would have imploded.

As forecasted by RW Johnson, the SA government would not have agreed with the IMF and instead, would have printed more Rands “like America and Europe” in Quantity (sic) Easing, and wham-bang, we would have slid into Zimbabwe-like chaos. My humble opinion granted, it was that close.

I’m pleased I have no need to defend my argument as that never happened. But I read the latest whistle-blower’s report about Public Protector, Adv Mkhwebane, I’m reminded that the country was run by the SSA under the direct command of his lordship. It didn’t happen and that’s all we need to take out of the last two years right now.

There are many articles written about what HAS happened. I cannot remember all, but for me, noteworthy has been:

  • President Cyril Ramaphosa won the ANC election and ousted ex-president Zuma.
  • He has managed to assert many initiatives despite fierce white anting from his own party and so-called allies.
  • He has established commissions of inquiry into SARS, the PIC [imagine millions of civil servants without pensions and their hard-saved cash squandered by Gupta advisors] and State Capture.
  • The first one brought about the demise of Tom Moyane in an interim report and he has since been unable to overturn that decision. SARS, therefore, is on the path to recovery and I note from the matters upon which I serve, that cashflow has returned to SARS and they are no longer being accused of withholding reviewed taxes.
  • The SARB is in safe hands for now.
  • SAA is in business rescue. An absolute first for SOE’s, and an embarrassment to the ANC, it is now going to be fascinating to watch how the seasoned Les Mathusen manages his rescue plan. The unions, which forced the hand of the Presidency, one in shut-down and the other in a court application, have offered to work with the Business Rescue practitioner to prevent the liquidation of SAA. Watch this space as Mathusen unpacks the over-staffing, the over-charging, identifies the profitable businesses and routes, orders the sale of assets and retrenches thousands of employees in order to save the airline. He has endured no bigger stakes in his career, I’m sure.
  • Eskom – Eish! = Eskom Is Shedding Hourly! Every time Eskom load sheds, we write about -1% of our GDP growth into history. Irrecoverable and tragic in its consequences. It would have been worse, and seeing Cyril and Pravin jump in and help, for all the cynicism, is still better than shots of our President visiting Egyptian pyramids. The stakes are higher than wet coal; in faraway walnut offices, our junk status is being debated.
  • The NPA is being fixed and the Scorpions-by-another-name are coming into place. We will see prosecutions commence and some conclude in 2020. If our President really wanted to show intent, he could set up some fast-track courtrooms, resources and processes to prosecute low-hanging fruit cases, like that udder one called Estina Farm.
  • Every day be grateful for Amabhunghane and Scorpio. Bravest of the brave men and women have exposed evidence of exceptional proportions pointing to large-scale corruption by the highest of leaders. If ever a fish rotted from the top, the stench has been reported in excruciating detail by these journalists. Freedom of the Press, a cherished ideal of democracies, is alive and well in SA.


So much is not ideal but so much is far better than we could have hoped for two years ago. I always remind myself of that in my darkest [Eskom and other] days. You and I have been recipients of one of those “miracles” in South Africa; you can use any term you like to describe what could have been, but now what is, happening. The property market has been as interesting as ever. Anecdotally, houses under R3m are selling and upmarket homes are only selling at very deep discounts.

Two almost-humourous comments I’m regularly hearing from estate agents are:

“Prices had to drop, you know” and “Bargains abound now.” Both are platitudes for a really quiet, really buyer-based market. If you take the noise of politics, both national and international, out of the data, the fact is that economically, we are heading for an upswing in prices. Predictable interest rates, falling house prices and banks willing to lend are sure-fire bets for an upturn.

You establish a blush of confidence and the market would rebound in months and set sail for easy blogs to be written ☺ [I really battle to write upbeat stories in this depressed market ☹]. Seriously, every downturn has felt like this; we’ve just had more to hang our hopes on politically speaking. October’s origination record may have felt like a flash in the pan, but what if it portends exciting things to come?

Nothing beats a little R&R in the midst of the battle. Christmas is coming and the 13th [Friday nogal!], marked the beginning of builders’ holidays. Even the kids went off earlier this year – sorry, Moms. Com’on, let’s smile a little and enjoy the rest of the Season. I know “things could’ve been worse” doesn’t smack of motivation, but it is a damn side better than many more bitter facts.

Yours in Property.

@Christmas…

SAA and PROPERTY

/in , , , /by

On Tuesday I flew to Joburg for business. Boarding my usual redeye Kulula flight, I was struck by the SAA plane parked next to us. The stairs were pulled up but not engaged and the pilots’ windows were frosted by early morning dew. Obviously, that plane was going nowhere and that had been so for some time. Isn’t it sad that two unions could cause that 15000 employees received half their pay and, according to management, the other half and their 13th cheque [?] will be paid next week.

The only thing I can see as good in all of this is that the unions have again highlighted the travesty of management’s incompetence and corruption including poverty, illness-pleading Dudu Myeni and that DPE has stood firm on not funding the business. To the latter point, where the R2bn rescue-package comes from I have no idea.

Property isn’t flying either but in my bones, I feel something is happening. Property is caught up in the economic malaise but I’m really hoping we won’t need business rescue. Reading the latest research, Standard Bank lends some substance to my emotions in their Property Research on 14 November 2019:

Bottom seems in sight — but a long recovery awaits

Nominal house price growth, per our inhouse Standard Bank House Price Index (HPI), ticked up to 4.0% y/y in October, from 3.7% y/y in September. HPI growth was 0.5% m/m, after contracting 0.3% m/m over the same time. Still, house price growth has struggled to grow at rates similar to last years because of SA’s sustained weak economic fundamentals such as rising unemployment rates, labour market uncertainty, and depressed confidence.


You know, coming off a previous month’s negative house price growth, I’ll take anything on the upside. I’m also acutely aware of the previously reported record month in Origination. That flows through to every market player and is such amazing news. In Hermanus, there is something abuzz. From the “dead” and “if only someone would phone in” to “there’s something happening”.

A home was sold to Americans at a good price in the scheme of things. A local paid R6.9m for a 1-bed home on the golf estate. The town is buzzing and occupancies are projected at 80% over Season compared with 30-50% last year. It seems relative social calm and the full dams is having a positive effect. “Bottom seems in sight” is a really good headline from a major bank and it’s a damn side better than we’ve seen for a long time.

The SARB interest rate decision was excellent in my opinion. 0.25% is neither here nor there and at 3/2 in the voting, it was an exceptionally close call. Very interesting to see that FNB Commercial Property called a reduction mainly as a result of benign inflation and no particular cost pressures in the medium-term. Being wrong in these times is not unforgivable as the SARB had to choose conservatism in the light of Ratings gloom.

Last Friday’s negative watch by S&P was a case in point and reading the IMF’s urgency this week leaves no room for doubt as to content and speed of the reforms required to spur growth. We are headed for a fiscal cliff if we don’t cut debt. In my last blog I said SAA was a dry run for Eskom.

In the manner it’s turning out, I am left a little bemused. A salary increase of 5.9% with a promise of the 8% if the specially appointed consultant can find the necessary cost reductions, is half-pregnant. On the other hand, Solidarity’s serving papers for business rescue still need to be responded to by the government. I would be amazed politically if they succeed but commercially, I cannot see any other option than to shut SAA down. “Half-pregnant” is that feeling you get when increases are being given and business rescue to avoid total collapse, is imperative.

Durban, my ex-favourite city, is lifting off. I believe it’s the warm water. FNB believes semi-gration has now moved eastwards; maybe we call it “easti-gration” ☺. Cape Town has had its time but now Durban is the new playground of Gauteng. Spurred on by the easier access of the airport and the new beachfront promenade, property prices may outperform the country. FNB’s Commercial Property Insights of 20 November 2019, talk to the point and even if they’re half-right, residential property will follow commercial property as people are employed. Hold thumbs, every region could do with a lift!

And here’s a thought from ABSA to leave you a little perplexed. In their Homeowner Sentiment Index, 23 October 2019, they have this to say:

Positive sentiment regarding conditions in the South African residential property market was somewhat lower in the third quarter of 2019 compared with the second quarter, despite a cut in lending rates in late July and a rebound in economic growth in the second quarter after a contraction in the first quarter.

To be honest, I’d take anything that started off with “positive sentiment” but it’s a bit of a downer to read that it’s “lower”. I’m feeling more and more that 2019 will be a year of highs and lows. The net result of that is the old story of the half-full glass. Half-full or half-empty? Always the question, the answer of which is loaded with insight and meaning. With it comes the issue of what I can control and what is out of my hands. When I read today that Donald has signed a pro-protesters Bill into law that commits the USA to support the Hong Kong protesters, what am I to do with the fact that it has made China raving mad?

I mean let’s face it, you or I are victims or benefactors in such a global play. All we can really do is decide if it might affect us and how, and then determine to drive our businesses like an upswing is coming until we feel ourselves lifting with the tide. HLJ encourages you. We swim in the same sea and fish in the same ponds.

We have feelings of euphoria and discouragement just like you. But we remain committed to honest, hard-working success and want you to experience that as well.

Have a Kulula moment and fly!

Yours in Property

BLOGGER’s BACK

/in /by

It was 6 weeks ago that a shoulder injury was operated on and set me back for what will be a few months. However, the benefit of being able to do nothing on the face of it is that you get to watch the RWC2019 without feeling guilty. As I watched England getting dumped in the scrums and out-jumped in the lineouts and injured in the process, I could not think of a better team to be beaten in a resounding victory. Having mauled the All Blacks, they were favourites to win 2019, but a cocky, potent and invincible Green and Gold force majeure proved unassailable as the onslaught became the through-slaught and finally the out-slaught. What a lovely way to finish the tournament!

Of course, not everyone enjoyed the victory. The EFF congratulated Siya and left it to Prince Harry to congratulate the rest. Frankly, for those of us who scream when a try is scored by a ball held by any colour hands, the insult fell on deaf ears and colour-blind eyes. I’m so glad that such childishness did not dampen the people-lined streets of every major city [sorry Bloem!] in the country. Shouting, hugging, crying, videoing crowds of old supporters and young want-to-be’s [not Wallabies – yah!!] pitched up to give praise where praise is due. From ORT to CT adoring fans kept up a crescendo of incredible recognition. Francois Pienaar, who deserves every bean he’s worth, humbly stood back from his own limelight and asserted that this win was bigger than 1995. Isn’t that an awesome spirit? Shame on any detractors!

Allied to this, aren’t you glad that SafAir is sponsoring the Bokke? I would hate to see the emblem on the side of a plane parked on the other side of Durban airport grounded by a union strike. Over-bloated like SAA, I watched one of our illustrious politicians state openly outside the MTBP speech that Eskom’s mandate is to employ workers. What a joke! Wouldn’t it be lovely if everybody had guaranteed employment? A kindof, birth them, grow them, educate them and let the government take over with jobs for all whilst guaranteeing inflation-plus increases for the rest of their lives. What pressure would this take off their parents!

The only thing you’d need to worry about is tax soaring through 65% to 80% so as to maintain the Fare of the Fiscus. Cloud bloody cuckoo land I would say. But back to SafAir, what a year to back the Bokke and bask in the marketing of transporting a Web Ellis-winning team. Wow, that’s serendipitous for our newest airline!

I bet by now some of you are saying: “I wonder when he’s going to have the other shoulder operated on?” I don’t mind, it’s a free country and all views are welcomed ☺ For the rest who are prepared to read on, here’s the serious stuff…

The SARB excelled again. 3-2 against a rate drop and the vote in the public domain so we can see how tight it was for another 0.25% down. Especially on the back of 3.8% inflation; how’s that for the lowest since whenever?! But, I agree with the MPC. We are faced with 0.5% GDP and a downgrade by leading Rating Agencies. It’s so important for the SARB to be seen to be independent in the face of the ANC’s politicking around its ownership. We need to doubt about that like a hole in our economic head. Firm and fair but consistent in policy – everything we need from government. Investors, especially those both local and foreign, in Bonds have to know with certainty what the SARB will do in the face of downgrades and beyond.

They now have complete clarity. The other vital point here is Governor Kganjago, who has made it plain to the government [read: the ANC] that growth lies with them, not with monetary policy. In a nation where the institutions are attacked from every angle, here is a solid institution agreeing with Mboweni de facto, and saying to the government:  “We are going to protect the Rand and you need to stimulate the economy so get on with it!”

So what? For the property market, we find ourselves the victim of the economy and its weakness. We cannot move beyond the obvious nor influence the required. But, as you know, it has not all been doom and gloom. Last month Origination had a record month since the doldrums of sub-Prime. A record, you must be joking? Good news, I’m not and we’re so blessed to have had the injection of industry confidence. In our next blog, we’ll probably unpack that more. But for now, a beautiful thought that comes from a poem uttered in 1939. Those of you watch The Crown [which has just launched its 3rd season], will have heard King George utter such sentiments to the desperate peoples of Britain. The good news is that he was proved right in the end.

[Per Dr James Gray, our minister, this poem was made famous by King George V1 who used it back in 1939 when the world was teetering on the brink of war.] 

I said to the man who stood at the gate of the year: 

“Give me a light that I may tread safely into the unknown.” 

And he replied: “Step out into the darkness and put your hand into the hand of God.

That shall be to you better than light;

And safer than a known way.”

It may be a little early, but we’re only 1 month and 2 days from Christmas. For what’s left of 2019, HLJ hopes you sell well and enjoy the time left to excel in all that you do.

Yours in Property.

A MIXED BAG

/in , , , /by

We celebrate Spring Day on 1 September 2019. But really Winter is from Friday, 21 June to 23 September. From the 23rd, our nights begin to shorten and our days lengthen. Nature comes alive and I wish I could send you some of the pictures and videos that I have received. You can Google the Cape flowers and feast your eyes.

Bottom line, sunshine raises our spirits and gets us out of bed earlier in the morning. We know the property market also adjusts upwards seasonally from October to early December, literally like night follows day. Enjoy the Sales!

With this brightness in mind, we cover a few excerpts of articles that are really interesting.

#ImStaying has hit the ground running with 330000 members and growing. In a Businesstech article dated 30 September 2019, #ImStaying is Spreading, 5 reasons were given for people not leaving the country:

Popular for reasons for staying include:

 

  • Diversity – A number of people on the group praised the country’s diversity – including South Africa’s multilingualism and the fact that people of different races are living side-by-side after years of apartheid. Commenters also praised the ‘mish-mash’ of cultures which makes the country unlike anywhere else in the world.
  • Family – A number of commenters indicated that they intend to stay in the country due to strong familial ties. Many posters indicated that they also have an ‘extended’ family including friends, colleagues, and employees who make them want to stay.
  • Quality of life – A large number of posters indicated that South Africa has some of the best weather and landscapes in the world. People also praised the general quality of life including friendly people, food culture, and the activities available to them.
  • Career – A number of people indicated that they remained in the country due to their jobs. Some posters indicated that they were proud to contribute to the economy, while others said that they received great personal satisfaction from their work.
  • Natural beauty – people also love South Africa’s natural beauty, including the beaches, mountains, and the many game reserves full of wildlife. The country is also being praised as having the perfect weather.

The page has garnered significant traction on social media and currently has over 330,000 members as of Monday (30 September).

The first reason is my best. The South African national motto is:

!ke e: / xarra //ke
Written in the Khoisan language of the /Xam people and literally means, Diverse People Unite. It calls upon each individual’s effort to harness the unity between thought and action and ourselves. Our old motto was, Unity is Strength. How the two make much sense for a united South Africa. I often hear that what unites us is greater than what divides us – we long for that to dawn on each of our people.

Last time I wrote I said,

“…next time you’re at the braai, think about tossing in just one morsel of Hope to the conversation…”

Above are five good reasons to remain in South Africa and be part of the solution.

Our President has started a weekly newsletter to the nation. That’s going to be interesting. I like the fact that he is positive whilst being a realist. That must be a tough ask after the weekend NEC at which Tito Mboweni, our Finance Minister, tabled his latest economic turnaround plan. However, Businesstech today [30 September] in an article, What you need to know about the state of South Africa: Ramaphosa, quoted him:


“Concerns are real. This year, the economy will record growth that is lower than expected (and much lower than what we need). Government finances are stretched about as far as they can go, and several industries are looking at retrenching workers.”

Ramaphosa added that much of the country’s confidence has dissipated as the reality of the country’s problems become clearer.

“This confidence was born out of the hope that we would quickly undo the damage that was done over a number of years. Implementing change does take time,” he said.

In isolation, that’s an understatement. However, he is telling us that changing things takes time. The pace of change is too slow for the Goodies and too fast for the Baddies. I guess we need to be grateful that so much is happening [Google JP Landman’s articles if you want a list of all that’s taking place since the beginning of 2019], and have the patience that a Constitutional democracy demands. One thing to mention is Justice Minister, Ronald Lamola’s, Special Tribunal which will fast-track the recovery of “billions looted from the State” which will commence its work on 1 October. Strength to your arms, Minister Lamola!

FNB’s Property Insights by John Loos dated 25 September 2019, gives us the data to support what many of us are feeling in the market. New Mortgage loans have declined by -7.82% qoq from 1st quarter 2018 to 2019. I don’t know the impact of the pipeline on this number but obviously it is affected by developments. I must guess that the construction and sales of these complexes are slowing down though, I must say, driving down Bryanston Avenue, Sandton last week, you could have fooled me. From R3-R12million it is wall-to-wall new complexes. Long may it last if we consider that the New Commercial Property Mortgage loans have declined by -29.6% in Q12019; that’s heavy. John expresses the hope that residential loans will begin “leveling out”. Staying with FNB’s Property Barometer, “emigration-driven sales”, prevalent in the higher end of the market, declined from 14.2% to 13.4% in Q22019. That’s good and in the right direction. Perhaps #ImStaying-type initiatives do have an impact – they sure beat negative news.

Allied to this news is an interesting turn which we trust becomes a lead indicator. Property24, quoting Dr Andrew Golding of Pam Golding, reports that “time on the market” is showing positive signs. We extract:


“The time to sell varies according to a number of factors which include: realistic pricing in the current market, desirability of location – namely high demand, sought-after centres and key hubs, as well as other macro-economic and socio-political impacts.

“Currently, we are finding that properties in the price bracket up to R4 million are selling at a median period between 34 and 43.5 days, while homes in the price band from R4 million to R6 million sell in 76.5 days, those from R6 million to R12 million at a median of 90 days, while those in the upper price brackets generally take somewhat longer to sell.”


I close with a statistical analysis from Standard Bank Property Research, Evolution of SA House Prices 1991 – 2018, dated 16 September 2019. That is a long period and the full article demands a read by those of us interested in things statistical. For the others [☺], here’s a summary.

Considering Household Disposable Income [what you have left after benefits and tax], Household Debt-to-Income [your proportion of debt repayments to your HDI], Prime rate, and Building Plans Passed, you have the possibility of affording a home. In fact, according to this research, 84% of “the fundamental growth of SA house prices” is due to the confluence of these indices. I would not argue with Standard Bank but I can’t help but wonder what the correlation would have been if they had used Business Confidence and plotted house prices to this index. Confidence, not money, buys houses – a simplistic statement but the absence of confidence makes buyers terribly skittish and sellers reluctant to face the new reality of the value of their houses. That said, this research was really good and over a very long period. Excellent thank you, Standard Bank!

A mixed bag indeed. But I can’t help think that, like the budding little White Stinkwood trees up the path to church this morning, there are green shoots beginning to appear. Maybe it’s the longer sunny days, maybe it’s Braai Day and the time spent with families, maybe it’s the Whale Festival and the hordes of visitors in town who were not disappointed. Or, maybe, it’s just Hope.

Two quotes to close:


Incredible change happens in your life when you decide to take control of what you do have power over instead of craving control over what you don’t.

– Steven Maraboli

And finally, the Arch:

I’m not an optimist, but I am a prisoner of Hope.


Yours in Property.

HOPE

/in /by

As you could read, my previous blog just sprung on me as I sat down to write this one. However, as raw as it was, Hope still needs to be our mantra. In the recent Nedbank Private Wealth Client Newsletter, JP Landman similarly wrote of the cry from the beloved country, to reference Alan Paton’s famous book. 

 

JP wrote the following in his “Act 1” entitled, Reclaim the State:

“Just do something” is the cry now rising from all over South Africa – a plea to the president and government in general to take some action to break the logjam in which the country finds itself. Confidence is low, growth sluggish, and emigration high. It is useful to replay what has been done.

 


The Ramaphosa administration has set itself two tasks: to rebuild the ethical foundations of the state and to revitalise the economy. The two topics are too much to cover in one note, so I will discuss ethical renewal in this note (Act 1) and assess economic renewal in the next one (Act 2).

  • Part of Ramaphoria was the belief that the bad guys would lose. That is certainly happening.
  • People who were once untouchable have fallen from grace for all to see. Some have even been convicted already. The impunity of the Zuma years is slowly being reversed.
  • The process is not over, with the Zondo Commission still in session and almost weekly revelations of appalling behaviour.
  • Getting convictions in court is very different from revealing things at a commission. Despite this, many people have already fallen on their swords.
  • Civil society organisations have helped in this clean-up and this speaks volumes for South Africa’s democratic activism.

Why I like JP Landman is that he was the first person to really introduce me to the concept of “noise” and the damage it can cause to me. If you read his article and juxtapose it to the Maverick editorial, you will read the same thing. But the former, whilst assertive, lacks the anger of the latter. That not-so-subtle difference in writing style is also “noise” in our heads and hearts. This point about one of many of Hope’s facets is essential. Now let’s consider the following article by the son of Alan Knott-Craig (Snr) who, though I’m open to correction, was the “founder” CEO of Vodacom. As such, I would guess the Knott-Craigs have “something to lose” if South Africa goes belly up. And yet his progeny, Alan (Jnr), chairman of Herotel, decides to come back and be part of the solution. Somehow, he manages to see through the “noise” [the last time I’ll use the inverted commas] and urge us to be positive.


GETTING YOUR MIND AROUND WHY IT’S POSSIBLE TO BE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT SA
Alan Knott-Craig

23rd August 2019 by alec@biznews.com 

[Preface by Alec Hogg: Every now and again I ask my pal Alan Knott-Craig to apply his fertile mind to reasons why fellow SA-optimists shouldn’t be sent to the booby-hatch. He responded today with some practical reasons why those of us in this tiny camp should be committed, in a positive way of course. And as he has done before, this young father of three girls, a CA who returned home from New York in 2003 to follow his entrepreneurial path, has delivered a piece guaranteed to uplift even the most cynical of his fellows. Have a read and smile. And if you’d like to read more content like this, subscribe to my Daily Insider newsletter]   


South Africa’s vibes are pretty negative at the moment. 

Eskom (still). ANC factions. Zondo Commission. Baddies not in jail. Army in Cape Flats. Crime. Everyone seems to know someone who’s leaving Joburg for Sydney, without passing Cape Town or Durban. Depressing stuff. Makes you think whether it’s time to consider Plan B’s. Maybe it’s time to leave the country. There are plenty of good reasons to throw in the towel. Crime. Crooks. Corruption. There are also plenty of good reasons to eat anchovies. At the end of the day, what you do is up to you. But before packing your bags, you need to find reasons to NOT panic. You need rational arguments for why SA is not heading for economic (and social) chaos. Unfortunately, there are no rational arguments. All the evidence points towards doom. The only hope we can cling to is that we’ve been in the same situation on several previous occasions, and the country somehow confounded the doomsayers. But hope is not a strategy.

Neither is a non-SA passport. It’s nice to think you can hop on a plane if things get really real, but in truth, most of us are economic prisoners. We can’t leave SA because we can’t afford to live anywhere else and have the same quality of life. London, Tel Aviv, Singapore and Tokyo are awesome. Absolutely stunning cities, great food, trains on time. A beer costs R100. A house costs $5m. Nairobi is a lot cheaper. Beer costs R35, but it takes 90min to travel 10km through gridlocked traffic, all day every day. The trouble is South Africa is the only country in the world where we can be happy. We can’t braai in England (it’s illegal to burn wood), or visit family in Australia (no family in Oz), or live in a decent house in New Zealand (too expensive), or drive to work in Hong Kong (permanent traffic jams), or breathe in Beijing (permanent smog), or be proud of your president in America (imagine having The Donald as your chief ambassador?)

It is possible to live elsewhere. It’s just not possible to be as happy elsewhere. Only South Africa has our families, our culture, or boerewors, our humour, our weather, our chutney. Only South Africa has the Karoo AND the Transkei AND Golf Reef City. Only South Africa lets you see the stars at night AND buy a decent cappuccino. Only South Africa gives you opportunities to help other people, to pay their school fees, to give them a job, to give you purpose. In South Africa, you can make a difference in other people’s lives. The trick is to realise there is no happy alternative.

Once you’ve come to terms with not having a Plan B, it’s a lot easier to commit. And that’s what we all need to do: Commit. Because if we don’t commit, we’ll definitely be unhappy, and we’ll probably fail. The next few years in SA will not be easy. Which is great news. Good times are not really useful for getting ahead. As Petyr Baelish said in Game of Thrones (a few hours before having his throat slit), “Chaos is a ladder”. True opportunity only arises when everyone is heading for the exits. Right now, everyone is heading for the exits. Which means there’s never been a better time to be optimistic.

We’re South Africans. We’re used to tough times. Zuma has trained us well. You can’t do anything about Zondo, you can’t put Markus in jail, you can’t change interest rates, you can’t leave the country. As long as you’re not leaving, you’re staying. If you’re staying, you may as well commit. To commit 100%, there’s no room for doubt and pessimism. You need optimism in the front seat.

Here are four tips for being optimistic:

  1. Travel internationally. It’s only when you see the other side that you appreciate that the grass isn’t greener.
  2. Invest in Rand hedge shares on the JSE: ABI, BAT, Richemont, Naspers, Anglo, Glencore. That way if the Rand crashes, your investments will go up. If the Rand strengthens, great news for you because you’re living and earning in Rands.
  3. Don’t read the newspapers. Firstly, they’re biased towards bad news because bad news sells. Secondly, you can’t influence 99.9% of the stuff you read about. If you can’t influence it, ignore it. It’s just wasted energy. Save all your attention for stuff you can influence.
  4. Make sure you have a purpose other than just making bucks. Orphans, or cancer patients, or rhinos, or whatever. Unlike Switzerland, South Africa is a country with lots of injustice. Lots of opportunities to make a difference and have purpose in life.


Think of it this way: If SA’s future is bad, it doesn’t matter what you do, you’re screwed. If SA’s future is great, and you spent ten years worrying about the future, then you’ll be kicking yourself ten years from now for having needlessly spent all that time stressing and worrying. Everything will be ok in the end. If it’s not ok, it’s not the end. You must be saying by now, “Jack, what the hell are you saying?” On the one hand the Maverick article imploring the SA Government to take over properly and do something. That call is then reinforced by JP Landman. Many of us resonate with both. But Alan confounds us further. “Hope is not a strategy”, he writes. Why would I then write about it?

Let me cover a few points about Hope. Make no mistake, I have an agenda. I want you to be Hope-full. I want you to be so Hope-full that you impact other people with the power of Hope. Without it we are not just Hope-less, we are Hope-NOT. You can’t be wishy-washy Hope-full; you have Hope or you don’t. Like a car, you have one or you don’t; nothing less cuts it. Let’s start right there. You see, you can get transport in many places – the bus, Uber, a lift – but you will never have experienced the sense of ownership if you have not bought and owned a car. Let’s face it, that’s why we buy houses. Very few of us rent our whole lives. Hope is like that. It is personal to you. In it, you find your sense of ownership, individually and uniquely. Hope is a head matter, the ability to read the messages of the last three articles, clear out the noise and take from them what you can apply to your heart so as to enjoy and exercise your Hope. I read a mixture of articles but the reason is to make up my own mind. The fact then, as I see it, is that we are in a crisis of huge proportions, but my response to that fact [as I personally and rationally understand it] is my responsibility.

Hope is a force, not a state.

 

Alan is right to say, “But hope is not a strategy”. You can’t “live in hope” and sit on a park bench every day and “hope” alles sal regkom. Hope is not static. Hope projects – Alan effectively says, Hope “commits”.

 

So what then has your and my Hope committed to? What are we doing to calm our nerves and try to make a difference? A friendly greeting, assistance to your neighbour, coaching and mentoring, attending the #EnoughisEnough protest? Or, something bigger – an animal shelter, building a homeless shelter, sponsoring bursaries? Or, to the business people – employing people at a fair wage, paying all your taxes that are due? I’ve said it before; Africa is a place where you cannot sit on the fence any more. You have to commit to something to have any sense of purpose and meaning in the national daily chaos. And boy, are there myriad opportunities to make a difference! I cannot say it better than Alan’s point 4 above. Hope longs, and in that, Hope acts.

Hope has a facet called Humour. Pieter-Dirk Uys made us laugh at ourselves; Trevor Noah does the same. Taking the Mickey out of our daily lives and times enables us to laugh and gain a fresh perspective. Yes, of course, It may just be during the show but often, to feel your belly wobble with laughter is just good medicine. Far from the Madding Crowd, as the book title goes. I’ve bought a Fitbit to replace my TomTom watch and this little bracelet [that’s all it is really] has a cool gimmick, a 2-minute deep breathing button. So you push it and it tells you to relax….so you do. Then it tells you to breathe in and breathe out and on the screen circular dots display out and then in again. What a gimmick, but to be honest, what a lovely [though cheesy] break from the day. Get one, try it ☺

Hope encourages others. Some of you may be reading this and wondering why you waste your time. “The ol’ man is losing it”, I can hear you say, “What drivel’. That’s fine by me. But then big guy, what about spreading some of your optimism and Hope around? Or do you also join “the manne” at the braai and while 4kg of meat is braaiing and the ice-cold Castle is condensing over your fingers in the hot Spring sun, you join the “bitch” about South Africa? That night you go home and dream of the “lekker” day you’ve had. Been there, done that, if you think I’m a paragon of virtue. But really, what help did that do? You solved every phobia in the book – Xenophobia, Homophobia, Guptaphobia, VBSpobia – but really, what help did that do? Last night after a church meeting a guy who I’d met on Saturday morning came up to me and asked for a lift to the taxi. He wanted to go to Stanford at 7:15pm at night. In our town, there are no taxis at night so he was about to sleep on the side of the road. So I told him to jump in and I took him to Stanford. We talked. He came to Stellenbosch university from Angola to enrol to study a Mining degree next year. Speaking poor English, he explained that he was assaulted in Cape Town and came out here to see if he could get a job.

Once again, he was threatened in Zwelihle and has now found a place in Stanford [our next little town] where he can sleep in safety. We then arrived at our destination and he showed me down the roads and we stopped for him to get out. “But this is the Police Station!” I said. “Yes”, he replied, “See you on Sunday [at church]”, he confirmed. With that he disembarked with a rucksack, I guess with all his possessions. As I drove away, I couldn’t help but think that an aspirant Mining engineer has risked everything to come study in our country because and all we could dish up to this foreigner is one assault that left him hospitalised, and one threatening situation and now he has to sleep, perhaps for months, in a small-town Police station. How grateful and how blessed am I in comparison!? Probably, so are you if you’re still reading this.

Spread Hope – the longing yet active kind – the one that hustles while it waits. And in the end, if you leave, don’t kill South Africa with your mouth, because people still live here.

What has all this got to do with Property? Confidence, not money, buys property. So you and I can bad mouth the country and her government, but for every negative seed we sow, R1000 disappears off the value of the very house you’re trying to sell, or mortgage, or convey. We don’t have to be puritan, God knows I’m not, but next time you’re at the braai [Braai Day’s coming up], think about tossing in just one morsel of Hope to the conversation. Who knows that you may not be the estate agent or originator they call to sell that house.

Be real. Be positive. Be Hope-full.

Yours in Property.

WHOSE COUNTRY IS IT ANYWAY?

/in /by

I sat down this morning to write a blog called HOPE. It is a title I have used before but it always bears repeating from all its various angles. But, I was captivated by this article. Imploring and sarcastic, compelling and raw, true and angry. You may not like it or even agree with all its content but don’t let’s lose the gorilla in it – South Africa is in the long, dark tunnel of a crisis of epic proportions.

I will write the HOPE article. But I hope this Daily Maverick article, correctly copied and referenced to very brave men [and I believe mainly] women of this newspaper, will find its way to you.

[In case you wonder what this has to do with property, the dark fog of “investment drought” we’re experiencing countrywide, including buying and selling of residential property, will not lift until the orange sun of Justice breaks through against those who have robbed us.]

Daily Maverick: 10 September: Editorial

 

YOUR MOVE SOUTH AFRICA

For too long now, the state of South Africa has been malfunctioning. It’s time for the choking apparatus to cough back into life. The truth is, South Africa doesn’t have much time left and it had better happen. Now.

The story titled VBS Theft, Money Laundering & Life’s Little Luxuries: Julius Malema’s time of spending dangerously has laid out in excruciating detail how the leader of Parliament’s third-largest party was a willing participant in one of the single-biggest thefts from poor people in South African history.

Daily Maverick Scorpio journalist, Pauli van Wyk, has spent months obtaining, researching, cross-referencing and analysing the data, before delivering a devastating blow to Julius Malema’s self-propelled reputation of being disaffected youth’s selfless champion and defender. Apart from the many laws that were broken, Pauli van Wyk’s exposé has blown to smithereens the myth of a corruption-fighter and exposed a naked hypocrite who’s in it for power and money.

Pauli van Wyk’s exposé has shown that Malema has broken at least four laws:

  • He received fraudulently acquired monies, taken from the poorest of the poor, which he clearly knew about – the provenance of the payments was even spelt out on Mahuna banking statements. (If you want to think of the morality of this act, just think of Robin Hood, but exactly the opposite.)
  • He disguised the fact that he was the recipient of the money by hiding behind his cousin, Matsobane Phaleng, a clear case of money laundering.
  • He used the bank card of the company that was not in his name, which is fraudulent.
  • Every time he made a purchase with the stolen money, he committed a crime (as in Jacob Zuma’s 783 counts).

We say at least four laws because we do not have access to Mr Malema’s tax records, which could dramatically increase that number. (We also could not assess the tax-compliance status of Mahuna Investments). But we’d be willing to bet large sums that Mr Malema failed to report the millions he received from VBS loot via Mahuna Investments as his (taxable) income. That fact alone should be seriously troublesome for a taxpayer who not long ago barely avoided jail time by entering a compromise with SARS to pay off his debt. Repeat tax offenders are never looked upon with grace and patience by any functioning legal system anywhere in the world. (Functioning being a keyword here).

According to a retired judge,

Theft like this carries a minimum of 15 years in a case where more than R500,000 is involved. Money laundering can carry up to 30 years. In this case, as a first offender and given that one has to be careful not to have duplication of charges, given his position and the sustained nature of the criminal conduct and the source of the proceeds, ie from poor people, the jail sentence would be at least 10 years.

It is important at this point to pull back and understand where South Africa is right now.
The twin scourge of horrific violence against women and xenophobia have again reared their ugly heads this September. The country is a stuttering ship about to hit an iceberg.

We’re still nursing the wounds after the mauling that was Jacob Zuma’s presidency. These wounds are deep and by now badly infected; it is not at all certain the patient, South Africa, can recover. Any moment now, it could slip into anaphylactic shock and the entire structure, whose foundation was so expertly eroded over the last decade, may collapse. The economy is in free-fall, people are desperately unhappy, the reforms that were expected to happen have yet to materialise, in great part thanks to the vicious fight-back that’s been led by the Zuma-aligned forces. (One can’t really expect them to ride quietly into the sunset – should they lose this battle, it will be orange overalls instead of Armani suits and red berets).

The streets are angry. The streets are dangerous.

It is time for decisive action by the South African state and its government. It is time for it to either put up or shut up.

For way too long, it was parts of civil society, the judiciary and the media who were not only doing their jobs but also covered for a historically, almost comically, absent state and its organs. It was the media who brought into the public domain the truth about the true extent of State Capture corruption. It was civil society when it was not feeding the hungry, clothing and healing the poor, and educating the insufficiently educated (all of which should be the government’s domain), that took the media exposés and doggedly pursued them all the way to the Constitutional Court. All along, the judges refused to be intimidated and passed the judgments which in any normal country would have changed history. But we, the media, cannot do it in a vacuum any more. Independent media these days is an impecunious place to be, where journalists are barely surviving, working for publications that soon might be no more.

NGOs are so stretched that they may soon break – and that’s even before they have to endure the ignominy of being branded “foreign agents” by the State Capture players and their attack dogs. So… here we are. It is time for all, especially the bodies comprising the “security cluster”, to act. It is time for the NPA to take a trip to the nearest court with a bunch of empty folders. All they need is to print the media’s exposés and the accompanying attachments in the print shop across the street from the court. It is time for all ministers and everyone else paid by a public dime to show up for work and take action. Of course, results can’t be achieved in a day, as the problems are so deep and extensive that anyone can understand that it will take time to fix them. But they need to be SEEN as acting in people’s interest and not for their narrow, short-term political gain.

It is also the time for the parts of the opposition which are willing to participate in rebuilding this country, to actually do it. Time to stop shouting at people. Elections are in the future – now we all need to ensure we actually have that future. AND, it is time for President Ramaphosa to remember he is not only elected to be the head of the SA government, but also to be the LEADER of the South African people. That requires compassion, action and true commitment. Whatever the State Capture actors might do to taint his past, the people of South Africa will support him if they see that he is fighting for their present and never stops working for their future.

The independent journalists of this country are tired of shouldering that future, sometimes on their own. Over the many years, we uncovered what really happened in Marikana, we exposed the Guptas, Nkandla and the depths of State Capture. Since the #GuptaLeaks, literally hundreds of people involved in State Capture crimes have been outed, fully exposing the Secretary-General of the ruling party, and the top leadership of the third-biggest party in the country.

How many of them have been arrested, charged and jailed since, say, Marikana? How many? And you still expect us to consider South Africa a respectable state? Relying on media and civil society to do these important jobs of government is unsustainable. The media fraternity cannot keep its motivation forever. Or our jobs. Or our lives. Do not think that investigations like VBS Theft, Money Laundering & Life’s Little Luxuries: Julius Malema’s time of spending dangerously will continue to materialise from thin air, over and over again. Journalists in South Africa operate in clear and present danger. It’s time to do something about it.

A good place to start would be to take the investigations brought into the public domain by Scorpio, amaBhungane, News24 and other investigative outfits seriously. The future of our country now depends on you doing your job. Should you do nothing, just please don’t say again that we did not warn you. Because we have. Because we are warning you, right now.

Your move, South Africa.

Yours in Property.