THE ELECTIVE CONFERENCE

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Well, it’s happened!!

Just sitting here listening to the de-brief of what took place has caused me to rise and write this blog immediately.

I am still to write a synopsis of the property market in 2017. Those who have been reading me during the year know that I will be positive. Not in the sense that that is the stance I take as a rule but rather, that the end of the year is better than expected after our president turned the Treasury on its head for the second time in as many years. In doing so, he ignored any common sense that may have prevailed locally and internationally. His view was his view, no consultation, no permission just Guptanomics applied brutally. In doing so it feels as though he cooked his goose and has paid the price. In his own words in his scathing last speech, he is a soldier and he will march on. Man, has he left a legacy of unity at the cost of principles, and best of all, free education for all [well, 90%], which we cannot afford! Guess who is going to pay for it? – the wealthy and the Poor.

But this Elective conference which I must say has delivered the candidate I prayed for, has delivered a mixed-up unity like none other. There are people in senior Secretarial positions whose own province could not stay out of court for branch and PEC electoral distortions. Other people who have played the game of politics for politics itself – the amassing of votes in a democratic society but who probably have no one in mind but themselves. Self-centred individuals who triumph on the backs of well-intended people.

KZN could implode. What that means I do not know but I’m sure unless the leaders of the ANC pull together, that province could well continue with their low-intensity civil war. My sense is that whilst the Eastern Cape is bereft of competency and leadership, KZN is bereft of values as well. Without values, killing your tender competitor is sanctioned and if that means revenge killing, so be it. Heaven help the leaders there as they take unity to the ground and make it happen in the hearts of the people. I cannot help but think Jacob Zuma has set alight the province where he scored his greatest victory, namely, to quell the warring IFP/ANC factions in the 90″s.

The one thing I have seen all my life is that people follow leaders. Watching Colin Maine, the ANCYL leader, it was amazing to listen to him change his tune and welcome the unity that the appointment of Cyril Ramaphosa brings. What rubbish! He hated and slated the man in favour of his beloveds – jz and ndz. But how fast the change occurred as he saw his salary and his prestige swiftly flowing out the door. Will he survive the next election? I don’t know but I must say, I have seen the same shift of position happen often in Corporates. Human systems adapt to leadership. Leadership can lift the games of their followers. Or, leadership can sink their followers to the lowest common denominator. Jacob Zuma has done just that and in case you thought he’s going away, remember, he is still president of our beautiful tortured country.

So a couple of points for the property market:

  1. The Rand strengthened prior to the conference on the buzz that Cyril Ramaphosa would win. Now it has crashed through barriers last seen 2 years ago, especially to the British Pound.
  2. This strengthening movement is probably over-stated and we will need to see if it continues and then sustains. It will literally take the first few words of the new President of the ANC to shift it one way or the other. Even as President of the leading political party in the country, his stance will determine the short-term value of the Rand. If he favours the country overtly and the ANC secondly ie in private discussions, he will win us kudos.
  3. We have a downgrade from Moodys in the wings. I think Cyril Ramaphosa has just won us a reprieve.
  4. The downside, for those who wanted to win the 2019 elections, is probably that the ANC will consolidate and even win back metros they have lost. Joburg, prepare yourself for change. It will take a huge amount of scepticism and a massive amount of compromise with the zuma faction, to foresee the ANC losing in Gauteng again.
  5. Speculation aside, the win by Cyril Ramaphosa is good for property:

– The 1% growth that we lost out on this year will materialize as 2% next year.

– The drain of the SOE’s on the economy will begin [very slowly, however] to recuperate.

– It will be very interesting to see if anyone goes to jail, but I think there will be some sacrificed lambs who will do time to satisfy the populace.

– When the economy rises, jobs will be prioritized and COSATU will be manifested in all their glory in the new-birth of the tripartite alliance. That happy band of vote-winners will be in unison again. Tonight’s manufactured unity will be realized and expounded to the Press.

In summary, property will benefit and rates will decline as long as the Rand holds onto its new-found value. Slowly but surely, property will rise in price. Don’t write off that Gauteng, on the back of positive politics in a winning streak and with the fresh feel of abundant water, don’t be surprised that prices rise well above the average of the last three years. “Prepare to meet thy boom”, was how the late de Kock, the Reserve Bank Governor, expressed it.

What a Christmas present for South Africans of every walk of life! Jobs will be at the centre of a conference that Cyril Ramaphosa pulls together with Business and Economists and Others. Prepare for a Grande Plan that mobilizes for jobs – probably the most precious thing besides water in our economy at the moment.

More to come but in the meantime,

Yours in Property

DISTRACTION’S COST

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In our previous blog we explored the notion of Distraction and its associates, “Procrastination” and “Important”. In this blog we’ll discuss an old term, Opportunity Cost.

On BBC, there is a programme, The Chase. It is a quiz show with a panel of normal people who pit themselves against a brilliant expert in general knowledge. At a point in time when the panel has come up against the expert, one person on the panel is chosen to pit themselves against him or her but with a twist. Let’s say the panel has scored UKP8000. The chance is then given for the panel to win, say UKP60000 or, if the expert progressively answers correctly, the panel loses, say, UKP2000. So, if they lose, they get UKP6000 but, if they win, they walk away with UKP68000. Of course, the panel can choose if they risk UKP 2000 or they try to win the additional UKP60000. This is an example of Opportunity Cost – if you play it safe and then beat the expert, your opportunity cost is UKP60000. Just to put that in our terms, that’s a whopping, R1000000! But, if you lose, UKP2000 is taken off your current winnings.

Opportunity costs exist in almost every decision to a greater or a lesser degree.

Opportunity Cost occurs as a result of having alternatives in a set of decisions. If, by doing one thing you prevent yourself from doing another, you may have just caused yourself a cost of opportunity. We do it all the time, negotiating our way through life’s complex paths. Risk-taking always implies opportunity cost. As in The Chase, you walk into one thing and leave another. Of course, it may be possible to do both or to undertake a hybrid of the two but, it is always the chance of upside or the downside that drives our decisions.

Here are some examples:

– You choose to marry Jane and not Sarah. Time tells if you made the right decision, remembering that your opportunity cost, might be measured in opinion only.

–  You chose to remain in a Corporate and retire on a pension rather than set out on your own and create wealth. Here, if you succeed in business, you score but if you fail, your opportunity cost would be the pension you could have had.

– You decide to have children. The cost is measured in Rands of education and care. The alternative may have been loneliness and the absence of familial care in old age.

And so it goes. The thing you left behind as you made the call to proceed in a particular direction, is the opportunity cost of the decision. Sometimes it is great and sometimes what you chose could prove much better than the action from which you walked away. Time tells in real life. In business decisions, the decision-taking is a lot more mathematical and models of forecasts, discounted cash flows and the likes are used to aid the decision. But even the richest of companies makes decisions to leave one thing and do another, always probably based on a reduction of expense or an increase in profit.

Where does this leave us when it comes to Distraction? Well, distraction either causes the wrong or a delayed decision or, distraction may cause a particular route to be followed when it was obvious to the focussed observer that the other should have been chosen. In such a case, the opportunity cost of delay or an incorrect decision could be significant. One area where I am feeling huge opportunity cost at the moment is in our SA politics. The current leadership is not putting us back 8 years being the two terms of the president, but rather a decade and more. Pravin Gordhan speaks about 10 years to recover from a full junk status and if that occurs before Christmas, that means 8 years of Zuma and another 10 years of recovery. In all of that, we all get poorer and the Poor become completely destitute. If we embellish on that with some of the social unrest scenarios, the ruin is unimaginable. I have recently read Jacques Paauw’s book and in the course of it, I stepped back and began to think of the reading that I have been forced to do to stay abreast of the scenarios in our beautiful, tortured country and the negativity contained in these books. I thought about the effort that it has taken to investigate and expose the “bad” and the amount of Distraction that it has caused a nation. Imagine if the only books selling at the moment were studies and success stories of green energy, water purification initiatives, farming methods, advanced financial planning and wealth creation, inexpensive building technologies, self-driving cars for public transport, etc, etc. – just imagine!

You see, the Distraction that corruption has brought has induced an immeasurable Opportunity Cost for our nation and her Peoples. Thus the travesty for me of the current leadership crisis is not even what we have lost, but what cost we have foregone with the amazing opportunity that democracy and the former leadership engendered for us. We live in hope that something occurs in the next year or two that completely changes the trajectory we’re currently plotting. In this regard, Zimbabwe has just got interesting and we wish a better outcome for her Peoples.

But back to us and what we can individually control. The cost of Distraction is immeasurable even in our own lives and circumstances. We need to be mercenary when considering what we spend our energy on. Time is of the essence when we choose, by design or default, to focus on the Unimportant in our lives. By pursuing a senseless decision or strategy, we waste the actual time expended but we also may bring about setbacks that last much longer. In your business, the relationship with your children, your marriage, Distraction and its associate, Opportunity Cost, lurk to waste your efforts and impede your success. Take control. As we’ve made the point before if you don’t, somebody else will. You don’t need to get paranoid about every decision but just take one or two “big rocks” and begin to practice Focus as opposed to Distraction, and estimate the Opportunity Cost of your alternate decisions. Great strategies are as much made up of what you do not do, as they are of what you do.

Homeloan Junction is practiced in these issues and no doubt has examples of where Opportunity Cost went against them over time. We learn from our mistakes and sometimes learn best from them, unfortunately. Point is a discussion with those who have been before you can always help when you are making decisions with uncertain outcomes. Strength to your arm as you manage the choppy waters with which we are faced. Hopefully, as we’ve discussed before, you will continue to enjoy the current level of activity of the market as it certainly feels like Property has held its own in difficult times.

 

Yours in Property.

DISTRACTION

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A blog for the honest readers amongst us 🙂

Who doesn’t know this word? It is the cousin of Procrastination and the bedfellow of Important. In fact, anything in life, personal or business, which takes more time to perfect than a morning cup of instant coffee, can go from Important to Distraction in seconds. If you still don’t believe me, sit to down to pray and “focus your thoughts” as you begin to worry about the “Sunday roast” – no wonder that ministers have a hard time of it!

Important often takes it out of you. You need to place it front of mind and concentrate on it over a period of time. Whatever’s important probably has a combination of thinking and executing, over time with a sense of discipline and consistency. Stephen Covey, in First Things First, uses the matrix we’ve discussed before, around the issues of Urgent vs Important. For most of us these days, Urgent [Urgent/Urgent in the matrix] things are emails and WhatsApp; the frenetic activity first thing in the morning to clear the stuff before work so that I can, well….work. But that is work, we say! Juxtapose that against building the character of a child or teaching a teenager to become a man – the Important/Important block [at the top of the matrix], and we are talking the real stuff of life rather than the froth on top of our next beer. Are we distracted as much doing emails – No? But a teenager –  different story!?

Enter Procrastination. I find most of us talk about time-wasting rather than the wasters of time. Procrastination is normally the big English word we all know. Putting things off, from mowing the lawn to fixing the lamp to writing the email that is not pleasant, to sorting out conflict etc, etc, is well-covered ground if you’re human and involved in relationships. Oh, how we sidestep the issues and just “wait for something to happen.” What are you doing about it? Nah, I’m just waiting for something to happen. Well, sometimes your patience and stillness pays off, but normally, two weeks later, that shrill voice says, “When are you going to fix the lamp?” And, so it often should, to awaken us from our wasting of time! Procrastination is well-known in business and a major reason why businesses become complacent. There is nothing like a cashflow crisis to shake everybody from their business-as-usual slumber and to get them going and understanding that things need to be done. I have used the analogy before of a 4X4 entering mud. You go in with a measure of confidence and eventually you find yourself sinking deeper and deeper until you’re just wheel-spinning. Such is the complacency of low to zero growth as we’re currently experiencing – you just don’t feel it for a while and then when you wake up and stop procrastinating, you realise there is serious work to be done to keep the business moving forward. Hopefully, it is not too late. A great leadership trait has always been to shake-up the business in the good times by reminding people that salaries are not guaranteed and getting them is a combination of hard work, application and customer service; the rules never change in business. Frankly, things never change in families either and we often need to feel hurt in order to change and even, progress.

So, we’re adept at procrastination but what are those time-wasters, those distractions, that steal the capability of any determined person to accomplish what is Important? Rather than give you a list, let me cover one thing that is common to us All. That one thing is invisible but real to each of us – our thoughts. It is hard to believe that thoughts can hold such sway over us – completely intangible but very powerful. They can make you smile and make you sweat. They make a man a boy and a boy, a man. They are the bedrock of bravery and the sinking sand of weakness. They are unique to you and I – each thought in its own time and place – and yet, so much of our human experience is driven by common ground no matter who you are and what your standing in life. Thoughts take place in the pre-frontal cortex [PFC] of the brain, just behind your forehead bone, where the stage of life plays out your day. Sitting here looking out the glass doors at a windless Spring day, yes, even now, my thoughts are racing. What to write next, what to prepare for tomorrow’s boards, remembering the farmers’ protests across the country [hopefully totally peaceful and effective], wondering what time my wife will return from her Soup Kitchen and her tea with a friend – thoughts pulsate in and through my PFC. Some take root, some dance like butterflies and move on; none have stopped me to waste time..yet. What about you as you read this and nod your head? What is wasting your time as it seats itself beyond the PCF. Some are physical [so go to the bathroom], some are mental [so check your bank account balance to see your monthly commission] while others are emotional [apologise for that harsh word with your child] and some may even be spiritual [a sense of fear of the unknown in this beautiful, tortured country of ours]. Whatever thought takes root in your mind just beyond the PCF can be or become the time-waster, a Distraction. So what is just beyond the PCF? Without the big names, it is the seat of your emotions and experiences. You see [and experience], when a thought takes root in the PCF, our stage of mental activity, if we allow it to rest there we will quickly make the connection with our emotions and/or experiences. Simple example: you see a red rose and before you even bend down, you smell the scent of the rose in your imagination. In fact, you may even smell again to check if there is no scent “like last time”. Take something less trivial: you have a fight with your spouse in the morning and the whole day, you break away from what you’re needing to do, to replay the fight and the response, in your mind. Emotions running wild or previous experiences reinforcing a current thought, play havoc with your ability to focus. And focus is what’s needed even for quick, yet important, things. No wonder the Book of Joy by Desmond Tutu and The Dalai Lama, reminds us that joy in any sense of the word, begins with Perspective. If you want a distraction, have a negative perspective on an activity. I often think Attitude [the positive one] is half the battle won. You see, a long time before you make another cup of coffee, get up to check the weather, sit back and think about something off the point, you’re thinking. No wonder the Good book admonishes us to, “take our thoughts captive.” Nothing like thoughts wastes our time – thoughts are the genesis of Distraction.

Once again, for some of you, this is old hat. But for some, a jerk of conscience may just be the medicine you need to re-focus and get on with the Important things you need to deal with. Homeloan Junction is made up of people just like you. We need to take Distraction to heart just like the people who read our blogs. If this reminder has helped you do that, goodie. If not or if not required, well done and be radically successful in what you want and need to do.

Yours in Property.

MENTORING

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Just for a break, let’s look at and consider one of the oldest learning forms known to Man. I believe it has enormous relevance in a modern day, South Africa.

Let’s check out the trusted Wikipedia for the definition and then unpack it for our and others’ benefit.

Mentorship,, [the art and skill of Mentoring…my words], is a relationship in which a more experienced or more knowledgeable person helps to guide a less experienced or less knowledgeable person. The mentor may be older or younger than the person being mentored, but he or she must have a certain area of expertise. It is a learning and development partnership between someone with vast experience and someone who wants to learn.

You cannot deny that South Africa is loaded with older people who have vast knowledge. Knowledge, often founded upon theoretical qualifications but also, for many years, bolstered by vast levels of experience, both bad [learning by mistakes] but mostly, good [learning success by becoming successful]. And the fields of expertise are enormous – Water, Marriage, Business of Every Kind, Politics Both National and Corporate, Artisanships, Construction of Every Kind, Consultancies [None the Least our own Property Industry[, Finance, Insurance; for Every Resource – Fuel, Water, Sewerage and, in Every Organisation, NPO or Not. Deep and wide lakes of skill and experience stored behind a dam wall of what – laziness, nonchalance, don’t-care-less? What’s your reason not to find a Mentee [as they’re commonly known] and begin to impart your skill?

In the good book, there is sage instruction to us around this very issue, Titus 2:2-3:

The aged women likewise, that they be in [good] behaviour …….be teachers of good things……That they may teach the young women……..

You see, mentoring, even at the more obvious level of motherhood, does not always come naturally to us. We have to be reminded that we have the experience and because we have been blessed with that, the duty, to teach and mentor others. I almost want to say, it is our Civil duty to mentor someone about something.

This argument lends itself to the need to understand how people learn. One of the most well-known researchers in this field is Kolbe, as described in his Experiential Learning Model. According to Kolbe, learning is not just an active, self-directed process but also a process where knowledge is created through the transformation of experience. In essence, his model is:

Concrete experience – learning by Feel or Touch;

Active experimentation – learning by Practice;

Reflective observation – learning by Observing, and;

Abstract conceptualizing – learning by Thinking.

My quick sense is that I use all of these methods to learn something but Kolbe is, as many quadrant models do, referring to a dominant means of learning. Most of us who went to school have had “talk and chalk” learning drummed into us and then we cemented that learning by homework, which equals practice. But what about the bricklayer? Would she be in a classroom or in the field, so to say? Point is, if you are to mentor, the question you can ask is simply, How do you prefer learning a subject or skill – listening or practice or just by watching me at work? The answer informs your mentoring style.

Two things before we conclude with the benefits of mentoring. One is Role-modelling. Watching someone chair a meeting or negotiate a deal is huge learning. The trick is to have the person or persons upon whom you intend to role-model decided upon and in your sight. It’s really difficult to role-model someone you cannot see. On the other hand, TV gives you a good observation platform – take public speaking and President Obama; excellent material for a mentee to learn the art of public speaking. We learn to role-model as a child and watching our parents and siblings has a huge place in our childhood development. How much more, as we grow into Corporates and our own businesses. And remember, learning from the positive and the negative is quite possible if you have the right attitude. You can learn how to putt and how not to putt just by watching the British Open.

Allied to role-modelling is Visualization. It’s told that Gary Player would play the Masters in his imagination while flying to America. Face it, you can go to the beach, love your wife, speak to an audience or write an exam right now just by closing your eyes and focussing, or visualizing if you prefer, on the event. Imagination rules the world, said Albert Einstein. And, how did he not know that, when he posited the famous E = MC2 equation before it was fully proven. Teach your mentee to visualize and you have taught a gift of a lifetime.

Mentoring is not for me, you might think. Well, here are some of the benefits:

 

  1. Mentoring is good for business. Call it what you like – feedback, discipline, training or development – mentoring grows your people. You cannot delegate a task to a person not capable of it – mentoring would have prevented that and saved you hours at the office especially on those days where “I should have done it myself in the first place.” Mentoring establishes rapport, that secret ingredient of relationships. You’ll know it as trust or emotional reserve or just “liking my boss”, but it is the stuff that gets people to work when you’re not watching and to care when you’re not there. We relate to people we know and we consider people we see and who see us in the psychological sense. Sharing is indeed, Caring, and nothing beats mentoring, as an element of your leadership style to let people feel and be part of a growing team.

 

  1. Mentoring is good for our country. Heaven knows we have a need for skills transfer and for people to do well enough in their endevours to be able to employ other people and continue the virtuous cycle of employment and growth. We often hear the lament that there are no longer any role-models in the townships. If all you woke up to every morning was your Naope-smoking sibling or an abusive, unemployed father, where would you be today? Talk about emulation, you would hardly help yourself but to do what they do and wreck your life in the process of wrecking many others. You and I can sit in our cosy lounges watching TV hoping that Gigaba will sort out social equality in his Medium-Term Budget speech on Wednesday but beware; inequality is becoming the buzzword of the Globe. Mentoring, like the starfish story, may be the best you and I can do to make a difference in a few lives, but it’s worth it. I love the advert on TV where the Indian man has planted 1400 acres of forest in the past 38 years to prevent soil erosion by just planting a few trees one at a time. An amazing story, best understood in the result. None the less, a couple of people testifying that your mentoring made a difference in their lives, is a gift to this beautiful, tortured country.

 

  1. Mentoring is good for you. If you have any sense of Purpose, those you mentor may go onto great things knowing you touched their lives along the way. Not a big deal, but loaded with meaning. Starting with your children and moving outwards, people grown under your wing can give you a huge sense of meaning and purpose as the years unfold. Be kind to yourself, consciously go out of your way to mentor someone and watch them grow – it will bless your soul.

 

In Homeloan Junction, role-models and mentors are aplenty; people who have been there and done that. Grab them and turn them into your role-model or mentor to help you grow and mature as you feel the need to. Willingness abounds so taking the step to go from “I respect you” to “will you please mentor me” is sometimes just a matter of asking. Be or find a mentor today and begin to visualize your success and let your imagination draw you into new worlds and ways that you desire. You deserve it! Yes You!

 

Yours in Property.

The Medium Term Budget Process

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The medium-term budget speech on Wednesday was the first by our new aspiring-to-be-president Finance Minister. I could not help but wonder if, between the position he has been given and the nuclear rush [so it seems], he has not been given a poison chalice by his incumbent president.

The Medium-term Budget Process…..

I remember the time when Trevor Manuel became the Finance Minister and we played rugby against the All Blacks. Like so many of our lovely people in Cape Town still today, he shouted for the HAKA Warriors. Suddenly, to all of our surprise, the Rand dropped. After all, how could Investors trust an unpatriotic Finance Minister with the nation’s Treasury? What a lesson for Trevor and an eye-opener for South Africa. Even given the wind that was at his back, he still became one of the most revered Finance Ministers we have ever had.

You see, it’s what a person in this position says AND DOES that makes the difference to those pesky investors and Rating Agencies. To quote Pravin Gordhan, he was presenting to Investors with US$5tn to invest when he was recalled by the president. You see, you can’t just sweet talk these guys and girls into giving you their monies, in fact, it’s mostly not theirs and they’re just asked to invest for pension funds, investment houses and the likes for a good and secure return. So they’re interested in the facts and not the fancies. Frankly, no matter how good your suit looks.

With that as background, Malusi Gigaba gave us and them nothing. On the positive side, he was brutally honest and told us that our debt is projected to rise to R3.04tn by 2021 and that would exceed 60% of our GDP. If we were building houses and hospitals we would still have a shot at understanding forgiveness but unfortunately, we’re not too sure whether we will rescue the SOE’s with it or pay commissions to India. By the way, KPMG could have learnt a thing or two from SAP on monies paid to or allowed to be paid to, the Indian connection. Informing the US authorities lifts the ante beyond the NPA and to where law enforcers actually enforce the law; so watch this space. He then proceeded to inform the watching world that he is going to sell Telkom shares in order to fund SAA’s 82nd [my exaggeration!] turnaround strategy. So what we intend to do is sell the non-essential [read: incorruptible] government investments to fund the ongoing rent-seeking from the SOE’s. Perhaps the thinking is, while the going is tough, the ruff keep going. With all this hard talk, no wonder he forgot to mention the nuclear deal. At least, Rostrom would be building the power station so it would not take as long as Medupe and Kusela but with a price tag of US$100bn and whatever in Rands by then, we could almost double our sovereign debt and still have some change from our childrens’ future GDP.

Of course, you would think I am only being sarcastic in writing like this but as we all know from a free Press, this is the thinking. And, it’s possible, though not probable, given a great Legal institution that protects the Constitution.

What we also know is that the budget presentation could have been put on Facebook to save money. The two paragraphs would have read something like this:

“Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a problem. Our growth is low and our debt is high. The situation is dire and we have two years to solve it before we need those equally-pesky IMF loans with conditions like, You Can’t Steal Anymore!

However, we have a plan, the first that we intend to implement effectively. We will:

  1. Monitor and fire people who spend taxpayers’ money on themselves or on wasteful, corrupt expenditure.
  2. Cut government expenditure by 10% in year 1 and 5% for 3 years thereafter.
  3. Appoint honest, capable directors and executives to the boards of the SOE’s so as to be able to consider privatising all SOE’s to knowledgeable shareholders with a proven track record in the respective industries.
  4. We will insist that business spend their R1tn cash reserves in South Africa because they, and their shareholders, trust us to deliver on our promises.
  5. We will have our last cabinet reshuffle for a while. As the Mother of All Reshuffles, we will fire ministers who are incompetent and risk the health and wealth of our People, including the indigent and retarded.

I have seen a few times in my life where people have done something in a department which they then re-inherited in a mess. But we have never seen the likes of Gigaba inheriting these rotten finances mainly from SOE’s where he appointed the directors whilst he was Minister of Public Works. Talk about sowing and reaping!

There is much to be worried about. The slide of the Rand is the first sign of that. We need to stay positive because we are positive by nature and believe.

Yours in Property.

PROPERTY NEWS – WHAT’S NEW?

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The following excerpts from FNB’s Agent Survey are copied for information. These trends do little for estate agents’ and originators’ motivation but they do allow us to reflect on what’s going on and our reaction to it.

Carry On Up the Khyber [Khyber] was the kind of comedy I grew up on. The Carry On movies were a laugh a minute if you appreciated slap-stick British humour – the Americans were still chasing each other on horses with John Wayne and Roy Rogers when they stumbled upon the “Sitcom” as they now call it colloquially. To us who know, comedy was invented in Britain! Khyber is about a British regiment, the 3rd Foot and Mouth Regiment, under the command of Sir Ruff-Diamond. Also known as The Devils in Skirts, they were reputed to not wear underpants under their kilts. Alas, Private Widdle is caught out by none other than the warlord of the Burpa tribe, Bungdit Din, the Khasi [Big Chief] of Khalabar [the imaginary province of India through which the Khyber River flows] and he, Bungdit Din, decides to cause an insurrection against the British by revealing the weakness of the underpants-less Devils. Needless to say, the invasion occurs and the Brits win, even winning back the underpants-based pride.

What a farce for a laugh and typical of the Carry On movies’ nonsense.

Enter FNB’s Agent Surveys with sincere thanks to John Loos, FNB’s renowned Property Strategist.

FNB ESTATE AGENT SURVEY– Investment Property Market.

“In the 3rd Quarter 2017 FNB Estate Agent Survey, the secondary home demand percentage was mildly lower than in the prior quarter, representing the second successive quarter of decline. In addition, there was a quarterly decline in the estimated percentage of investment (buy-to-let) home buying, a mild increase in the offloading of investment properties, and the pricing power of sellers of these homes appears reduced.

2ND PROPERTY BUYING REMAINS MIRED IN MEDIOCRITY

Perhaps it is to be expected that, in these tougher economic times, secondary home buying overall would be placed “on the backburner” by many, given its non-essential nature, and that the levels of such home buying would be mediocre at best.

Indeed, this continues to be the case.

Secondary home buying doesn’t appear to have “fallen through the floor”, but the FNB Estate Agent Survey does point to recent quarters’ estimates showing some decline in such buying as a percentage of total home buying.

According to the FNB Estate Agent Survey, secondary residential property buying reached a multi-year high of 14.47% of total home buying peak in the 1st quarter of 2017, the highest estimated percentage since the end of 2009. Since then, this estimate has declined mildly to 12.48% by the 3rd quarter of 2017. These levels remain far below the pre-2008 boom-time levels, which exceeded 20% at times.”

FNB PROPERTY BAROMETER – FNB House Price Index. 

“In September 2017, the FNB House Price Index showed a further mild acceleration in year-on-year growth compared with revised August growth. However, a better momentum indicator is the month-on-month seasonally adjusted growth calculation, and this points to renewed slowing, suggesting that with the customary lag the year-on-year price growth rate is also probably set to resume a slowing trend in the near term, constrained by an economy battling to achieve any meaningful growth.”

SEPTEMBER FNB HOUSE PRICE INDEX FINDINGS

The FNB House Price Index for September 2017 rose by 4.1% year-on-year. This is a mild acceleration from the revised 3.8% for August.

In real terms, when adjusting for CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation, the house price correction gradually continued, with the real rate of house price change remaining in negative territory to the tune of a -0.9% year-on-year decline in August (September CPI data not yet available). This is a diminished real house price deflation rate, however, from -1.1% year-on-year in July and from a low of -4.8% reached in December 2016.

This diminished real price decline in August was due to the acceleration in the year-on-year house price inflation rate of that month from 3.4% in July to 3.8%. However, a slight rise in CPI inflation from 4.6% year-on-year in July to 4.8% in August partly offset the effect of the house price growth acceleration.

The average price of homes transacted in September was R1,102,394.” [an interesting number…]

RECENT ESTIMATES OF DOMESTIC RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY BUYING BY FOREIGNERS

“In short, both foreigners’ buying of domestic residential property as well as South African expat buying of local

properties, are perceived to have moved gradually weaker, the former since late-2016 and the latter since back in 2015.

We believe this weakening to be reflective of a dampened investor sentiment towards South Africa in general, which in turn is the result of the country’s multi-year economic stagnation, uncertainty regarding future economic policy, and widely publicized negative news such as the recent sovereign rating downgrades to “junk status”, with further rating downgrades mooted as a possibility.”

Well, from the giggle of the Kyyber to the depression of the research. But, and this is the point and the question of this blog, is it all as crazy as it looks?

Firstly, investment property is under pressure. On the one hand, rentals must be rising as fewer and fewer people are able to buy homes. Between the lack of confidence, their jobs, their probable @inflation increases before tax, and with interest rates only just beginning to turn, I can imagine the rental increase. However, in most areas, yields have been pedestrian, costs of services have been rising, and capital accretion has been minimal. The scissor-grip occurs slowly but surely and unless you bought at a very good price, you will want to exit the investment market and focus on your own bond for a while.

Secondly, jumping to the foreigners, they’re a no-brainer. The heady days of almost R24 to the British Pound are over. In fact, anyone who bought a few years ago may even have seen their capital decline. Couple the reality of a stronger Rand with politics and no wonder the foreigners are investing in Costa Rica and Southern France, etc.

Thirdly, the house price index is declining, but it was expected to do so even if we hit 1.2% GDP growth, and would have declined further given the latest inflation rate of 5.1% against an expectation of 4.9%. At -1% [my approximation], that is good against some of the early-2017 forecasts.

This last point leads to some closing comments; a reality check if you like and hopefully, uplifting to our readers.

I often allude to the South African economy being able to absorb shocks; even the shock of State Capture. If Pravin Gordhan is correct, hundreds of billions of Rands have been syphoned out of government and parastatals by the thieves of corruption. You could say this has gone back into the economy, especially the luxury goods market, but the distraction from service delivery, wasteful expenditure and sheer criminality are on a scale that we have never seen before. This economy has somehow withstood this evil miraculously; none the least, the property market.

Add to this financial trauma, the political crisis we endure and the close-to-dictatorial presidency, and you have a recipe for disaster. And yet, even if you agree with the tone of this language, we have a slight decline in house price growth, a reduction in foreigners’ and expats’ purchasing and investors declining – all pretty much in line with expectations. Be honest, it could all be worse, much worse. I have spoken about a “new normal” and heaven knows, I have no desire that it be, but, given some of the recessions we have gone through in the past, we can out-live this one.

Please don’t misunderstand me. I am not making light of a sorry situation nor am I trying to energise the Weary. What I’m saying is that you and I have known worse and we are doing business, perhaps as much as 25% down, but still doing business. Buyers are buying and Sellers are selling pretty close to asking price and if you consider the economy, that’s almost amazing.

The real issues for me are big-hits and/or the complete distraction from critical needs. Big-hits include a South African downgrade to full junk status and the wrong choice at the ANC Elective conference. The downgrade is on a knife edge and Moodys holds the knife. The choice at the elective conference is too close to call and the ANC holds the choice. Either and particularly both, could be economically strangling. Truth is, you and I can only put in an honest day’s work, deal our inter-personal relationships with dignity and respect and then pray for sanity to prevail. As for me, I believe we will be surprised and that, positively.

So, let’s Carry On Up the Khyber! On the one hand, you have to pinch yourself that through it all, certain people have not yet appeared in court. Immoral, corrupt, populists of the worst kind with not a hint of the Poor in their conscience. And how about the email evidence that has literally caught them in their underpants. Wouldn’t it be comical if it wasn’t so serious? But, let me say this, there will come a time when the kilts are lifted and the bravado melts away. The farce that is now our politics must surely give way to some sense – of values and direction for our beautiful, tortured country. Khyber was a funny comedy, a parody of all things Indian and British. Somehow, in the midst of our own “Indian” chaos, we find the resilience to carry on, and the ability to laugh at ourselves. We South Africans look up and look forward finding the sunlight and our way in it.

Homeloan Junction is in the midst of this turmoil with you. We survived Sub-Prime and have thrived in recent years beyond our size. Like you, we are not enjoying the current uncertainty and the opportunity cost of our corrupt politicians, but we are determined to thrive as much as possible. Consider us a partner, a trusted partner, in your journey and lean on us where you require some help. We run an honest business with hardworking people and we expect to reap the good that we sow.

Yours in Property.

 

A CALL FROM THE PAST?

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Here’s something interesting that was in one of my Google articles.

[By the way, please forgive me for the variety of indices I use in this blog to make points. I do not have a research house behind me so please condone that I use different ratios and indices to offer a conclusion.]

We hear a lot about Trump and the people and things he is upsetting. He really does seem like a bull in the china [should that be China?] shop but, on the other hand, what he does is critical to the world. America, for all her woes, is the bedrock of the Western world and the Dollar still the pre-eminent currency on the globe.

Juxtaposed to this, is Warren Buffet. In every Press release, he is seemingly infallible in choosing winning industries and their winning shares. From Bitcoin to Gillette razors, he always seems to have a view and his views are revered. And, he’s been very confident in the American economy believing that, despite occasional setbacks, the economy will grow and richly expand. Of course, this view finds reflection in the New York Stock Exchange which at 22283 right now [26 September 2017: 14:53 CAT] and is trading in the highest range in history. Much has been said about the meteoric rise of the NYSE and Trump, whilst he gives it jitters from time to time, so far at least, has not stopped the cork-popping good times.

Before I make the point of this blog by referring to the attached graph, I remember sitting in our Ballito flat in 2008 watching the market go through 10000. It was obviously crashing before my eyes. From 14000 points in October 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial average index dropped to around 6600 by March 2009 – a collapse of unprecedented proportions but for the Great Depression. As a proxy for the NYSE, one can understand how this current market is very exciting for investors.

The question is, will it last? Have a look at the attached graph for a moment……..

 

Tracking from January 1871, the S&P500 rose from 80 points to 260 30 years later and then plunged back to 80 points in 1916 when, after the First World War probably, it collapsed, only to rise to  500 points before the Great Depression of 1931. Per the black line on the graph, it had risen to 2048 before 2006 when it re-corrected to 1020. If the graph continued, it would show the index at 2502 at 10h00 this morning [26 September 2017]. The straight black dotted line shows the rate of growth over the 135 years and it’s impressive.

Have a look at the red line. It records the P/E ratio which is simply the Earnings per Share [EPS] divided by the Share Price. So a share of R43 with an EPS of R1.95 would result in a P/E ratio of 22.05. Essentially, this is telling us that at the current ratio, it would take 22 years to earn the price of the share. Now looking at the graph, the P/E ratio rose spectacularly before the Great 1929-1931 Crash ie from 4 in 1916 to 34 in 1929 – that’s 850% in 13 years. You can see, after its ups and downs, the P/E ratio rose to just under 30 after 2006, probably 2010 when the world was beginning to sense some relief after the Sub-Prime crisis. As at this morning, the P/E ratio is 24.89 against an average of 15.67 and a minimum of 5.31 in December 1917 and a maximum of 123.7 (!) in May 2009. So, the P/E ratio is now trading at 58% above its long-term average.

Finally, the dotted line that skips from pullback to pullback is our focus of attention. It took 45 years for the Great Depression to occur and then about every 30 years for a deep adjustment to occur. The question for the experts now is simply when will the next one occur as, if you look at the volatility of the S&P, it was really jumpy when the Trump ticket was campaigning but in the last few months it has stabilized a little. The jury is really out on whether we will see a correction soon or whether Mr. Buffet is correct.

All this detail to what end? The American market is a huge dipstick to the state of American Corporates and its economy. After the Financial Crisis and at the opening edge of interest rate and FED balance sheet adjustments, it seems Big Business is confident of good growth. There are more compelling articles written about a slowing of P/E expectations but against sustainable growth than what seems to be the pure downside case. In essence, we hope that the growth in Corporate profits will continue albeit at a slower rate of increase.

In my previous blog I suggested that, for various reasons, the current state of the SA property market is a new normal. Please be sure, that’s not because I like it, and it could be Much better, but, because it could be much worse. Just looking at the most recent ooba Origination Overview, volumes of Granted bonds are down but not drastically at -1.3% yoy.

As they say in the Classics: Hou Moed!

Yours in Property.

WHEN THERE’S NO NEWS

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This has been a hard month for blogs.

“No news is good news” the saying goes. This really is a time of no news. I’m beginning to think that this is the New Normal. On the one hand, it’s not that bad and many of us are surviving on what’s on the table; certainly not shooting the lights out but “in there”. On the other, we are developing two horrible tolerances:

– We believe this is how life is and become accustomed to the state of affairs.

– We accept that politics will determine our fortunes and allow the chronology of elections and the antics of the ANC to determine what we do.

Please never feel when I write like this, that I’m “preaching at you”. That is not my style. I too have the tendency to relate the future to the ANC Elective Conference and then to the 2019 Elections. And frankly, we are in the cross-winds at the moment and being buffeted by spectacular news from every side. Some is highly negative [depending on which side you are on!] and some of it, sensationally criminal [depending on which side you are on!]. A tough environment indeed, in which to ply our trade.

In this context, I often have sympathy for John Loos of FNB. In his latest Mortgage Barometer, he discusses the SARB 2nd Quarter Bulletin for Mortgage Lending. Remember, this is one of the largest assets that the SARB measures and it is a huge part of the Banks’ balance sheets.

In Q12017, there was an uptick in the rate of growth of new mortgage loans lending [Residential, Commercial and Agricultural]. For those of us who know the industry, that was the December “over-run”. In Q22017, that growth sank to a year-on-year rate of change measuring -2.18% decline, compared to a briefly positive rate of +6.49% in the 1st quarter. John continues to tell us why – household and business sector confidence at sustained low levels.

So what’s new? Well, CapeTown is beginning to show signs of slowing, off astronomically high price growth rates. But I have just finished a Skype call with a friend in Sydney which creates some perspective. He tells me that the young people cannot afford a house in the city limits any longer. A 2-bed/bathroom flat sells for Aus$1.2m, about R12m in the suburbs. The same unit in Kenilworth in Cape Town sells for R3.5m – that’s roughly a quarter of the Aussie price. For interest rates, Aus is 5% vs our 9.5%. However, one of the reasons for their high prices, is that the Chinese are buying developments wholesale and then, once complete, selling them to incoming compatriots for Aus$100000 more per unit. Quick money and almost insatiable demand, to the exclusion of the real people of Australia. Globalisation and capitalism at its best or worst [again, depending on which side you’re on!]

In a nutshell, if you allow articles, the Free [thank God] Press and Google to determine the upside of your day, you may be doomed to negativity. The times are tough in our beautiful, tortured country but forces are afoot across the world, that are causing turbulence for many businesses and industries.

HLJ is at the forefront of everything mortgage. Again recently honoured for excellent performance, the business is thriving on all that is available in the market. We understand success in the tough times and have enjoyed it in the bad. But for you, our associate, consultant, business partner and client, we assure you of being there and treating your requirements with the utmost respect and professionalism. Simply put, we read the Press and work harder to thrive.

Yours in Property.

 

THINGS TO BE GRATEFUL FOR

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I have been battling for a topic for my next blog.

There is always a raft of bad news available and so it is easy to be negative. Once Peter Dirk-Uys, of Evita Bezuidenhout fame, was asked where he gets his material. His answer: “I read the papers.”

But, this morning it struck me, things could be worse. So here are some things for which we can be grateful:

INTERNATIONAL

Europe – Things seem pretty settled economically in Europe. Growth is positive and, apart from terrorist red-alerts, politics and economics seem stable. As our largest trading partners, that is very important for us.

Brexit – There are no fireworks that are being reported. Fair enough, whatever talks are being had are still at the technical stage. Deal-breakers, like Immigration and Passports and EU Fees, would be noted and placed on back-burners at this stage to be settled later in smoky lounges. The UK Pound is weakened and will stay that way for the foreseeable future as uncertainty prevails but its current exchange may become the new normal depending on the final Brexit agreement.

USA – Trump trumps. It feels as though everything we read about this nation is either ascribed to Trump or Buffet. The latter certainly called the stock market and its rise of about 18% [Nasdaq, for sure] has meant billions of dollars for the Investors. But Trump seems to be more focused on his image than his international relations. My sense is foreboding, you can’t be that sensitive to criticism and that dictatorial to decisions and still manage all the constituencies onshore and offshore. He has headwinds but his country is still prospering. That’s good for us and the rest of the world. If I was North Korea, I would just be cooling it for a while. Seriously though, we hope sanity prevails in that region.

Stock Markets – Wow, they’re high! Certainly no waiting, or watch-and-see there. Just up-and-up and off very little data that underscores the call. My sense is that interest rates are staying low longer, inflation remains controlled despite US$trillion balance sheets after Quantitative Easing and world trade seems stable. Added to that, Emerging markets seem to be less risky than compared with the Developed world so capital is seeking positive interest returns. Put another way, we seem a lot more concerned than the foreign Bond investor world does about the state of our country. Whatever, that’s another raft of good news for us as long as we are not fully downgraded.

AFRICA

Darkest Africa, it is no more. Pockets of democracy still prevail such as recently displayed in the Angolan polls. Growth is positive and fixed investment is occurring. We need Africa somewhat stable as we have big investments in her, and we desperately rely on governments to provide for their people so as not to migrate here and cripple us economically by adding to the poverty that abounds.

SOUTH AFRICA

Unfortunately, I must be a tad political as we understand our economy and our politics are side-saddling at the moment.

Interest Rates – There’s talk of another decrease. Inflation was pretty close to 4% so well within the SARB target range and the Rand has been range-bound though volitile. Sitting in a Risk committee last week, the sense was that the Rand was volatile but hasn’t weakened, or maybe, “downgraded” should be the word, as expected. This environment is somewhat conducive to declining interest rates. My view on the last one was that it was a “tester” to see if the Rand would weaken notably. It didn’t, so expect some more decline in interest.

Free Press – I would rather be saying, “Why are we not prosecuting?” than not be aware of the Amabhugane revelations. Thank goodness we have a free Press and that, whilst it faces difficult challenges at times which I would not dare trivialise, it largely does it work unhindered. We are kept informed and are able to make powerful decisions at key times; if this was not the case the ANC would be far less tenuous. I recommend you read to understand, and then look beyond the “noise” to reflect positively.

Gupta Exit – Could they come back? Yes, of course – like Chevrolet and Peugeot did after 1994. My question is more along the lines of, are their companies properly valued for sale, will they pay the appropriate tax and will the funds exit the country legally? If not, alleged Grand Theft should continually be investigated. But, their exit signals a tightening of the screws to doing business in SA. Companies have stepped back from their business to the point that they cannot transact any longer. It will be very interesting to see if the new owners get the fundamental support they need to trade and, if not, why not. If alleged [in our country, we still apply this rule of law] corruption is being retarded, that’s good news.

ANC – Cyril Ramaphosa spoke of the division again this weekend. Despite continual denials, there is an undeniable rift. Sadly, its roots are very deep and it would take years of courageous preparedness to litigate and a cessation of cadre deployment to reverse endemic corruption. I don’t know who has the stomach to make that happen satisfactorily. But again, that we can read about it, that leaders are speaking about it and the ANC is worried about it, is good news. In this regard, the SACP bi-partisan meeting today with the ANC will be telling. Derek Hanekom will be top of the agenda. What a nuisance when your NEC-elected head of the Disciplinary Committee is not prepared to tow the Party line. The court case concerning the KZN ANC election could also be telling when it comes to the KZN vote in December. This week could prove very interesting in SA politics. I would go so far as to say that these machinations are holding Moodys back from declaring us full Junk status. The hope that is engendered as good men of high standing refuse to have their characters and reputations trashed, is palpable for the rest of us. It is these actions, which seem to be light in the gloom of SA politics, that are helping our property industry at the moment.

Property – We are doing well. Of course, it could be better. However, we will not see that unless sanity returns to government. We have not had to endure any shocks recently and since the reshuffle, and the economy is hopefully going to come out of recession soon. But, admittedly, we are on a knife edge and nobody but our politicians are going to change that in the medium-term. Somehow, our property prices are holding their own even though I acknowledge that the rate of growth is declining. Perhaps what I’m trying to say is that I know it’s tough but if you’re still in the industry, you are winning against the odds.

JSE – What is going on here!? Record highs and a little drop only to return to…you guessed it, another record high. Huh? Yes, Naspers is at the heart of the growth but even Steinhoff could not pull the market back. And as we indicated above, this trend is not unique to us. Why is this something for which to be grateful? Well, we measure our wealth predominantly through shares and property. These asset classes are the crux of most pensions and the rest is cash or near-cash. If property is in the doldrums and stocks follow, we get miserable and for good reason. I’m not sure about the JSE breakaway but if you’d offered it to me I would have taken it with both hands. Good news!

The Rand – As stated, volatile but range-bound for the common man, the value is much better than gut-feel expected. Nothing more to say than it is good news for now. Another interesting point was made last week, that a normal deterioration of our currency based on inflation since the late 90’s would have yielded pretty close to R13/US$. Thinking about all the other stress and starin to which we have submitted our economy, our current rate is not that bad.

Let me sum up. I may be an old fool living in denial, but things could be much worse than what they are. You have to see the positives to get you through the day. You need support – family, friends, and the likes – from time to time, but unless you can convince You of some of these things, you can slump and become ineffective. There are positives and, at least, there are things to be grateful for. Many things we have feared have not come to pass and we have cause for hope in much of what we are reading and hearing, and, may I say it, experiencing. Stay in negativity if you wish, no one will blame you. But, if you can see some stuff that is positive, if not in the megatrends I have tabled but just in your daily life, then inspire others. I coached a man the other day who said this, “We are inspired by what we see, so be inspired.” Maybe that colleague next to you deserves some inspiration?

Homeloan Junction is inspired. Not because it’s easy but because it’s worthwhile. Continue to meet us at the Junction.

Yours in Property.

PERSONAL EFFECTIVENESS [PART8.2]

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In the previous part of this 2-part series, we covered how others face you. In accordance with your personal definition, people face you every day and create impressions of you simply by listening and watching your every move. Many opinions are not important to you or your career or business, but many are.

In this blog, in which we finish our series on Personal Effectiveness, we explore how we face others. In other words, what are the traits and attitudes by which we define our interactions and relationships with others?

I trust you will be challenged and motivated to change as and where required.

HOW YOU FACE OTHERS

We have written 7 Personal Effectiveness blogs in the past few months. I do not intend to repeat all of the content which you can find on www.homeloanjunction.co.za, but just state the headings:

Part 1: Perspective

Part 2: Altitude vs Attitude

Part 3: Purpose or Default?

Part 4: Focused or Frazzled?

Part 5: Passivity or Risk?

Part 6: Problem or Possibility?

Part 7: Choice or Chance?

I put to you that your response to these important foundations of character is a major determinant of personal definition. It would be very hard to display either side of these traits without having an impact on others. Fair to say, that we probably all display some of them and have a natural state which is dominant. Think of them as a continuum from 0-10 and score yourself honestly. Then take the scores, add them and divide by 7 to get a [average] picture of these foundations in the way you face others. If you’re happy with the result per trait and together, keep it up. If not, there is room for improvement so renew your spirit of self-development. You’re never too old to learn.

The only point I wish to make in totality is that we face others with our whole being, physically, mentally and spiritually. Especially to those who know you best, you cannot hide what’s deep inside. Beauty may be skin deep but it need not be – it can radiate from deep within us. We each have the capacity for personal beauty in our personal definition. The Good Book says, “Keep your heart with all diligence; for out of it are the issues of life.” [Proverbs 4:23 ]

Here are some other thoughts pertaining to how we face others:

  1. Academic or practical?
    Some individuals are academic. Professionals have no option, an accountant or doctor need professional qualifications in order to practice. Most graduates have a broad-based degree and then work in fields of interest or skill. Others have a trade and ply it in their own business or working with an institution. Some never qualify with any academics and simply learn to be who they are by experience. In the past, apprenticeships were very popular and produced many near-engineers and technicians. Interesting now, that trades-men and -women emigrate with ease because their skills are scare almost worldwide.

    Whatever level of academics you have used to get to where you are has little bearing on your personal definition. You may not agree, but as much as it is not possible to be an engineer without the requisite qualifications, being an engineer is not your persona. The sense of importance you place on your academic qualifications and the degree to which they “make you” who you are, requires caution. Academics are nice but not necessary in your journey from human doing to human being. They help to make you competent but so does experience; they do not make you important. I often ponder the difference between qualified and educated. I have met many qualified people but education needs no introduction; the application of education that brings with it the confidence of competence is obvious. The corollary is this, do not lament that you do not have a degree just be yourself and improve what and who you are.

  1. Showing up or showing up others.
    Personal definition does not require you to be big in the presence of small. Psychologists talk of projection – blaming others to avoid blame. It is cheap and nasty, lacing in abundance mentality. Abundance mentality became well known many years ago as an acknowledgement that “there is room for everybody.”  You do not have to squeeze out others to make a space for yourself; you can enjoy your space while others enjoy theirs. We often hear of dog-eat-dog and it has become the formula for some careers. Get to the top on the shoulders of others if that’s what it takes. Show up others and you will show up.

    Rubbish! Short-sighted nonsense! If you want to lead, you need to win the hearts of followers. You can get hands and even some heads by inducement and fear, but you will never get powerful motivation in unison with a carrot-and-stick mentality. The Lions did not become a dynamic winning team with the promise of a bonus; they drove victory after victory on passion and pride and technical skills of the game. At the helm was Johan Ackerman and they even played for him in the end. Imagine if he was the “important coach” and they were the “paid rugby players”; they would be bottom on the log.

    Want people to show up? Then you show up and give them the credit they deserve.

  1. Relentlessness and resilience
    I was on a call with a friend the other day when he spoke about being relentless. He may have read it in a self-help book but knowing him, I don’t think so. He is relentless. Obstacles produce other routes, failure is a “how not to” for the future, money is spent on R&D without regret and from every failed attempt comes a new learning. I have seen positive people, but I have never known anyone this relentless. Always driving, always learning, always thinking, always questioning, always progressing. With it, comes resilience. Even if I say he should think again, he comes back with an answer – what we have got from where we have been and what we still intend to do. A night of discouragement, followed by weeks of resilience – one business life stage after another. I wish that all his desires are realised one day; someone is going to buy his business for a huge amount. And what will some say? He’s lucky. Balderdash, he’s relentless!
  1. Can you say No?
    Some of us are only learning to say No late in life. We have been “approachable” and “there for people” for decades. Even to the point that many times others had our attention while those close to us lost out.

    There is really no excuse for that behaviour in a good personal definition. There is a formula for time management:

W + F + RE + S = T, where:

W = Work;

F = Family;

RE = Relaxation and Exercise;

S = Sleep, and:

T = 24 hours.

That’s what all of us have, 24 hours. No more and no less. That’s it, and multiplied by the days of our lives, that’s really it. Time management is not optional, it’s critical if you want to maximize personal effectiveness.

  1. Adversity

You will have it come hell or high water. It’s tough, relentless and draining. It can be short, like an accident or long like a disability. It is always associated with pain, physical or emotional. And, it is no respecter of persons.

Steve Jobs dies of pancreatic cancer with all the money in the world. And somewhere in a remote corner of the town other dies in poverty and of hunger. Adversity is a condition of Man.

I am always reminded that our right to choose is our choice of reaction. Given the same malady, one will crumple and another thrives. How many have entered business and failed, some to rise from the ashes and others to collapse in despair? Both faced with similar circumstances and both only left with the power of their reaction. Personal definition is hued with the way you deal adversity. The power to empathise with others is often born from our own grief. We understand what we have personally endured and survived, we identify with what we can imagine and hear from others. Spare a thought for those nearly broken in their adversity; before you criticize be aware of your own frailty in adverse circumstances. But, always use adversity for the better.

I wrote this to someone I love dearly and trust you will find it meaningful:

My prayer for you is that you will experience hardship with dignity. Hardship is the bedfellow of life. An illness, an untimely death, an accident, a retarded child are all sent to test the mettle of which we are made. Dignity and courage raise us to godliness in the face of confusion and pain. It is in the face of opposition and hardship that we record our finest hour and demonstrate our finest character.

  1. To believe or not to believe, that is the question

Sex, politics and religion were taboo when I grew up. I’m so glad that has changed and that we can discuss these topics in the open.

Religion is often suppressed in personal definition as something private. In fact, I am beginning to find that atheism is being raised quite early in conversations. “I am not religious”, I find, is an early statement in the formation of friendships and a noteworthy part of personal definition. In turn, in this modern world in which we live with all its personal and Press freedoms we hold dear, we should be able to say, “I am Christian or Buddhist” etc so as to define an element of our humanity and therefore our personal definition.

Whether it’s faith or fancy, the point I would like to leave with you is that your belief systems matter. Whether to guide a decision to be made or to serve to beacon a wrong or right decision already made, what you believe is a fundamental driver of how you face others.

A sense of personal definition demands a sense and even, display, of what you believe. Whether you speak it or remain silent, live it or default to it under pressure, your faith will shine through and will define you. Don’t allow a default setting to define you – define yourself and provide others a degree of certainty in your inter-personal dealings.

We all face others every minute of the day. Putting your best foot forward can work for some but eventually, the real you will reveal itself. No matter what that looks like, you will self-analyse afterwards and form your own impression. Others will be doing the same, rightly or wrongly, instantly and over time. Personal definition, like I have once described for Purpose, becomes the boundaries in which you are you. Most times you never think about it intentionally but over time, you will have become known to yourself and others in a particular way. If what you and they see is authentic and down-to-earth, good for you. If there is any plasticity, you owe it to yourself to improve. At the end of the day, you were born for a purpose and no matter how much or how little greatness has been thrust upon you, you have a responsibility to yourself and to others to be the best you can be.

In conclusion, as  coach I am often asked for my opinion of a particular behaviour. Should I stand up for my rights? Should I eat humble pie? Is what I am doing right? What could I do better? Questions that require an affirmation or an alternative approach from me. My answer is always: “Is what you are going to do effective in achieving what you want to achieve?” You see, we can do whatever we want to do but unless we achieve a desired outcome, what is the use? Surely, it is better to understand what we want to achieve, what is sustainable and meaningful and how these outcomes would best be achieved? Then we advance and we manage the process as things unfold trying our best efforts to achieve what we want. In such a  case, my way or opinion is unimportant in the scheme of things. And so it is with personal definition; what you wish people to think of you and how you wish to face them is all that matters. And the questions is not whether you are right or wrong but rather, is what you are going to be defined as effective for the way you want to live your life? Will you achieve what you want to achieve?

It truly is up to you to be the man or woman you want to be.

Great success, as you drive to great success!

Yours in Property.