THE ELECTIVE CONFERENCE (2)

THE ELECTIVE CONFERENCE

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Well, it’s happened!!

Just sitting here listening to the de-brief of what took place has caused me to rise and write this blog immediately.

I am still to write a synopsis of the property market in 2017. Those who have been reading me during the year know that I will be positive. Not in the sense that that is the stance I take as a rule but rather, that the end of the year is better than expected after our president turned the Treasury on its head for the second time in as many years. In doing so, he ignored any common sense that may have prevailed locally and internationally. His view was his view, no consultation, no permission just Guptanomics applied brutally. In doing so it feels as though he cooked his goose and has paid the price. In his own words in his scathing last speech, he is a soldier and he will march on. Man, has he left a legacy of unity at the cost of principles, and best of all, free education for all [well, 90%], which we cannot afford! Guess who is going to pay for it? – the wealthy and the Poor.

But this Elective conference which I must say has delivered the candidate I prayed for, has delivered a mixed-up unity like none other. There are people in senior Secretarial positions whose own province could not stay out of court for branch and PEC electoral distortions. Other people who have played the game of politics for politics itself – the amassing of votes in a democratic society but who probably have no one in mind but themselves. Self-centred individuals who triumph on the backs of well-intended people.

KZN could implode. What that means I do not know but I’m sure unless the leaders of the ANC pull together, that province could well continue with their low-intensity civil war. My sense is that whilst the Eastern Cape is bereft of competency and leadership, KZN is bereft of values as well. Without values, killing your tender competitor is sanctioned and if that means revenge killing, so be it. Heaven help the leaders there as they take unity to the ground and make it happen in the hearts of the people. I cannot help but think Jacob Zuma has set alight the province where he scored his greatest victory, namely, to quell the warring IFP/ANC factions in the 90″s.

The one thing I have seen all my life is that people follow leaders. Watching Colin Maine, the ANCYL leader, it was amazing to listen to him change his tune and welcome the unity that the appointment of Cyril Ramaphosa brings. What rubbish! He hated and slated the man in favour of his beloveds – jz and ndz. But how fast the change occurred as he saw his salary and his prestige swiftly flowing out the door. Will he survive the next election? I don’t know but I must say, I have seen the same shift of position happen often in Corporates. Human systems adapt to leadership. Leadership can lift the games of their followers. Or, leadership can sink their followers to the lowest common denominator. Jacob Zuma has done just that and in case you thought he’s going away, remember, he is still president of our beautiful tortured country.

So a couple of points for the property market:

  1. The Rand strengthened prior to the conference on the buzz that Cyril Ramaphosa would win. Now it has crashed through barriers last seen 2 years ago, especially to the British Pound.
  2. This strengthening movement is probably over-stated and we will need to see if it continues and then sustains. It will literally take the first few words of the new President of the ANC to shift it one way or the other. Even as President of the leading political party in the country, his stance will determine the short-term value of the Rand. If he favours the country overtly and the ANC secondly ie in private discussions, he will win us kudos.
  3. We have a downgrade from Moodys in the wings. I think Cyril Ramaphosa has just won us a reprieve.
  4. The downside, for those who wanted to win the 2019 elections, is probably that the ANC will consolidate and even win back metros they have lost. Joburg, prepare yourself for change. It will take a huge amount of scepticism and a massive amount of compromise with the zuma faction, to foresee the ANC losing in Gauteng again.
  5. Speculation aside, the win by Cyril Ramaphosa is good for property:

– The 1% growth that we lost out on this year will materialize as 2% next year.

– The drain of the SOE’s on the economy will begin [very slowly, however] to recuperate.

– It will be very interesting to see if anyone goes to jail, but I think there will be some sacrificed lambs who will do time to satisfy the populace.

– When the economy rises, jobs will be prioritized and COSATU will be manifested in all their glory in the new-birth of the tripartite alliance. That happy band of vote-winners will be in unison again. Tonight’s manufactured unity will be realized and expounded to the Press.

In summary, property will benefit and rates will decline as long as the Rand holds onto its new-found value. Slowly but surely, property will rise in price. Don’t write off that Gauteng, on the back of positive politics in a winning streak and with the fresh feel of abundant water, don’t be surprised that prices rise well above the average of the last three years. “Prepare to meet thy boom”, was how the late de Kock, the Reserve Bank Governor, expressed it.

What a Christmas present for South Africans of every walk of life! Jobs will be at the centre of a conference that Cyril Ramaphosa pulls together with Business and Economists and Others. Prepare for a Grande Plan that mobilizes for jobs – probably the most precious thing besides water in our economy at the moment.

More to come but in the meantime,

Yours in Property

Jack Trevena
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